We just learned watermelons can be peeled by hand, and it’s made us question everything about our daily rind. Here’s the master’s process.

In this week’s recap:

• New Party takes helm of opposition bloc

• CHP ranks depleted, still getting detained

• Peace process law imminent (again)

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• It’s 2026. Do you know where your uncles are?

Also from us this week:

• In-house historian Emily Rice Johnson dropped This Day in Turkey’s August edition for News Tracking Tools subscribers only

By now, recap readers know ousted CHP Chair Özgür Özel launched a new party Friday. Its name is ‘Yeni Parti,’ meaning ‘New Party’. And the internet is still talking about how the ‘N’ in Yeni looks like the ‘N’ in ‘Netflix’.

Responding to this critical matter, Özel said that’s not the party logo, just the name, and a logo competition would be held “if necessary.”

Those who cannot Netflix and chill can look at the first Yeni Party office in Hatay, which does not use the scarlet letter—and which a Yeni Party staffer told us was meant to resemble folds in the Turkish flag. Okay, on with the reel news …

What to know: The breakaway party represents an objectively bold move by former CHP lawmakers seeking to reclaim the nation’s main opposition mantle after a court ruling reinstalled unpopular ex-CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in May.

The move is bold because Yeni Party will face obstacles in terms of basic funding and snap election eligibility along with the ever-present threat of legal actions against government opponents.

“It’s an exciting and stressful time,” a Yeni Party staff member told Turkey recap. “The media is spreading rumors that Yeni Party is structurally weaker and more likely to get targeted with corruption probes than CHP. We’re not sure what will come next.”

In the first statement on Yeni Party from a government insider, Chief Presidential Advisor Mehmet Uçum called the splinter party “insignificant,” adding the party ranks are corrupt and that the CHP had been purified by their exit.

To date, 91 CHP MPs have transferred to Yeni Party as hundreds of provincial and municipal officials are currently in the process of changing their party memberships (covered in more detail below).

Despite the swelling ranks and the MHP’s appeal, Yeni Party cannot receive treasury funding before the next elections under current laws. So, Özel launched a fundraising campaign Wednesday, appealing to supporters for help in filling the immediate financing gap (on the heels of a major fundraising scandal in Turkey).

In the meantime, procedural and administrative prep work churns behind closed doors, as with Yeni Party’s first group meeting Tuesday, which was for party officials only and involved bureaucratic measures, a Yeni Party source told Turkey recap.

New party, new hue? The party program is online and repeats the phrase “We will change this oppressive system” a total of 15 times. Much of the program will sound familiar to CHP followers, though with a few tweaks. Here are some core initiatives:

• A return to the parliamentary system

• Implementing Constitutional Court and ECHR rulings

• Re-adopting the Istanbul Convention on violence against women

• Mother tongue and equal citizenship as basic rights

• Accelerating the EU accession process

What’s different is Yeni Party seems to be positioning itself as more “pro-Western” and more progressive than the CHP, said Çağdaş Üngör, a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Marmara University in Istanbul.

In a new commentary, Üngör argued the party program “shows an attempt” to merge foundational Kemalist principles with post-Kemalist ideals on pluralism and minority rights.

“They will have to appeal to more people than the regular CHP base,” Üngör told Turkey recap, adding this was “mathematically” necessary for electoral success.

“All these Kemalist principles, they cannot let that go because that’s been the backbone of opposition right now for so many years,” she continued. “But keeping them should not be a barrier for [Yeni Party] to reach other people, as well. So, there is a delicate balance there.”

A Yeni Party staff member expressed similar sentiments in an interview with Turkey recap, stating the party has a new image that may appeal to voters who are “allergic” to CHP’s legacy.

The staffer also expressed grief for having to leave the CHP, but said even voters who supported Kılıçdaroğlu in the past, could not support his reinstallation by a politicized judiciary—resulting in a mass exodus of both members and voters to Yeni Party.

The takeaway: Apart from the immediate obstacles regarding party funding, eligibility and prosecutions, the main question going forward is whether Yeni Party can draw support beyond the traditional CHP voter base before the next elections.

“If it goes smoothly, I think there’s a good chance that they can appeal to undecided voters in Turkey, especially the younger generation,” Üngör said.

“What they promise is basically more freedom,” she added. “You don’t even have to go for a very sophisticated agenda. Many people, especially the younger people, are [feeling] very much restricted.”

Kemal night long: CHP ranks depleted, still getting detained

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Shout out to the Montreux Convention, which marked its 90th anniversary this week. Balancing military powers with a strait face since 1936.

In this week’s recap:

• Ousted opposition leader to form new party

• CHP probes weigh on transfer decisions

• Key peace process law now imminent

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Governor dismissed on cycling short notice

Also from us this week:

• Wouter Massink on how Russia’s shadow fleet is getting scrapped in Turkey

On Tuesday, Özgür Özel delivered the speech many have been expecting since his ouster from the CHP exactly two months earlier.

In an emotional appeal that drew both tears and roaring applause from attendees, Özel said he’d resign from Turkey’s main opposition party and establish a new party to challenge Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the next election cycle.

“We will never accept being a controlled opposition. This is not a separation, this is not giving up,” Özel said in his final CHP parliamentary group speech. “We are not taking off our shirts in politics. We are all together putting on a fiery shirt in politics for the future of this country.”

At the time of writing: Özel held a closed meeting Thursday morning with CHP members that may resign en masse and transfer to his new party—which has yet to be named. Here’s what we know from initial reports:

• Roughly 95 of CHP’s 135 MPs may join the new party, though the timing remains uncertain (read below)

• The party name and logo are finalized. Formal application is expected next week

• The party establishment date is expected in “August or September”

• A rent agreement was made for a party HQ to be opened in October

• A ‘back-up’ party is ready in case all the above fails

Noteworthy: MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli chimed in today to say the new party should have access to treasury funds like all parties over the parliamentary threshold.

Reminder: This is all taking place after Turkey’s top court of appeals announced Friday that it would review the CHP congress case after the summer judicial break, which ends Aug. 31.

A delayed review of the appeal was a red line for Özel and his supporters, who seek to clinch electoral eligibility for the new party in case snap elections are announced this year.

New party considerations: Nearly all polls suggest the new party will surpass the Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu-led CHP in voter support, while some surveys place Özel’s party in close competition with the AKP.

A turbulent period lies ahead for Turkey’s opposition as various CHP officials have begun announcing whether they will stay with Kılıçdaroğlu or join Özel this week. Some CHP members are also remaining “independent” or resigning without choosing sides yet.

When it comes to CHP voters, a reported 220,000 have already renounced party membership. Among them is the “entire family” of Dr. Arife Köse, a political scientist at the University of East Anglia.

Asked if the new party might help restore the “competitive” part of Turkey’s “competitive authoritarianism,” Köse told Turkey recap:

“The regime may well try new steps against the new party to keep it from contesting the next elections. I don’t think the government will strip the immunities of the MPs and of Özel himself if they transfer to the new party—that will risk derailing the ongoing process with the Kurds, too.”

Analysis: A key concern remains the potential division of opposition votes between the CHP and the new party, diminishing both parties’ prospects for electoral success. Köse estimates the CHP will likely retain between 3 to 5 percent of the voters.

Still, she emphasized a rapid party establishment process is now necessary not just for electoral eligibility, but also to keep Özel supporters energized.

“What really matters now is whether Özgür Özel can turn his popularity into support for the new party itself,” Köse told Turkey recap.

“If he manages to mobilize people and build what he calls a ‘party of Turkey’—one where social democrats remain the backbone, but it reaches out to much wider sections of society—he can minimize that risk. Whether he wins over other opposition parties and their voters comes down to those same two factors.”

Crackdown chronicles: CHP probes weigh on transfer decisions

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A decade after the July 15 coup attempt, a clear account of the New Turkey’s defining event has yet to surface. There is no question, however, that more than 250 people died that night and countless individuals remain in jail on scant evidence of their involvement.

In this week’s recap:

• US, Turkey explore F-35/S-400 solutions

• New CHP purges, ‘New Party’ in the works

• CHP Çankaya mayor arrested, removed from office

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Turkey denies visa to Omar Souleyman without ‘Warning, Warning’

Also from us this week:

• Soli Özel joins Recap radio to discuss the S-400 sale prospects and NATO summit

Today’s title is not a reference to the Amb. Tom Barrack’s X post (and its replies), but to the Trump administration’s gesture of good faith to the Erdoğan government in seeking to resolve the long-running F-35 issue.

In his visit to Ankara last week, Trump said he would “lift sanctions” on Turkey so the country could purchase F-35 fighter jets. But as recap readers know, this requires Turkey to get rid of its Russian-made S-400 missiles, as established in the 2020 and 2021 US National Defense Authorization Acts.

What’s new? Following the NATO summit, both US and Turkish officials have expressed the will to address the F-35/S-400 dilemma while also signaling potential pathways to a solution—including export options and technical workarounds.

One pathway is selling the S-400 to a third country, the announcement of which government-adjacent columnist Abdulkadir Selvi expected Friday.

Nothing happened, but Selvi repeated the claim Monday, praising a “new era in Turkish-American relations,” spearheaded by FM Hakan Fidan, intel chief Ibrahim Kalın and US envoy to Turkey Tom Barrack. (See above: Not that jet stir.)

Another pathway involves reading the fine print on the US CAATSA sanctions, which target Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB)—the government agency responsible for military procurements—and not Turkey’s armed forces. In short, the US can still sell weapons to the Turkish armed forces, as was the plan with the F-16 purchase that fell out of the news cycle.

What’s the problem? The US cannot transfer F-35 jets to Turkey as long as Turkey has S-400 missiles. That’s the fine print in the defense authorization bills that blocked the aircraft and imposed the CAATSA sanctions on Turkey.

“There was a mention of the CAATSA provision in the 2020 NDAA that barred Turkey from the F-35, but that’s not the reason Turkey was barred. The reason … was because of its purchase and ‘possession’ of the S-400,” Aaron Stein, president of the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), told Turkey recap.

“So, even if sanctions are lifted or paused or whatever, that still doesn’t resolve the F-35 issue,” he added.

What about a waiver? In a recent commentary on this topic, Stein suggested a third pathway could see Turkey benefit from a sanctions exemption applied to India and Vietnam. Turkey did not originally qualify, he wrote, “because it was ramping up its relationship with Russia, rather than toning it down.”

Some analysts now argue Erdoğan taking is distance from Moscow, and this may work to Ankara’s favor in some US bilateral issues, but addressing the S-400s remains the starting point to the lengthy process of F-35 acquisitions for Ankara, Stein said.

“What has changed is that Trump took what was in the shadows and made it very, very overt,” he told Turkey recap. “While the ball has long been in Turkey’s court, there’s no denying that anymore. If they are willing to get rid of the S-400, they have a pathway to purchase the F-35 and have sanctions removed.”

What officials say: On live TV Friday, Fidan said the issue would “reach a conclusion soon.” He underlined that the Turkish government’s expectations were “actually being expressed by Mr. Trump.”

“From the very beginning, we did not want sanctions between allies in any way,” Fidan said, adding: “Elected political leadership—namely the congress, or in our case the parliament—should not play an obstructive role between allies in this regard.”

Speaking to CNN Sunday, US Amb. to NATO Matthew Whitaker said Trump would make sure “the right deal is cut” with Turkey on the F-35 without undermining US national security interests.

“What my tours through Turkey have shown is that they are a very capable ally,” Whitaker said, adding: “I think we should lean into that relationship with Turkey.”

Yet, Russia and its export controls on Turkey’s S-400 remain a decisive factor. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was an “extremely sensitive issue” and that contacts were ongoing between Ankara and Moscow.

Speaking on the possibility of a Russian green light for Turkey’s S-400 sale, Stein said:

“Why would they? This is a gift to keep two NATO allies apart and to keep the F-35 out of another country.”

The packing order: New CHP purges, ‘New Party’ in the works

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In this week’s recap:

• Uncertainty lingers for US-Turkey jet deals

• Turkish defense industry courts global partners

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Everything else that trended during the summit

When he arrived at Tuesday’s Defense Industry Forum, a jet-lagged US Sen. Lindsey Graham ducked behind a staircase, took his shoes off and put his feet up on a chair, baring his dark blue socks to the Ankara NATO summit around him.

Reading this as an invitation, I asked if he expected any breakthroughs on a US jet deal with Turkey following news of possible engine sales and US Pres. Donald Trump’s tease about making Turkey “very happy.” Graham said not yet.

“We’ll have to see what Trump can do and how Congress reacts,” Graham told Turkey recap.

An apparently more caffeinated and more vertical version of the senator later told local media he was “open” to delivering F-35s to Turkey, a message echoed by other visiting US Congress members who expressed optimism with the usual, long-standing conditionalities on Turkey’s S-400 missiles and CAATSA sanctions.

Key discussions: A much-promised path for Turkey’s return to the F-35 fighter jet program remains clouded by uncertainties following a much-hyped Trump visit to this week’s Ankara NATO summit. While international focus was on the revived Iran conflict, alliance cohesion and increased defense spending, Turkey watchers awaited news on jet deals that have yet to materialize.

“I haven’t totally made up my mind,” Trump said in a press conference Wednesday, a day after saying, “We’re going to be taking the sanctions off [Turkey],” while sitting with Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who gave a thumbs up.

Following Trump’s inconclusive speech, Erdoğan was asked to provide further details on the F-35 talks in a press conference last night. He dodged the question, stating, “Watch this space” or “Stay tuned” before adding Trump would follow through on his “promise” while answering a separate question.

Notably, Erdoğan said he’s still looking to secure US jet engines for the F-35’s domestic competitor, the KAAN warplane—which needs to be finalized now that Ankara’s Air Force Memorial Forest has been replanted in the shape of the national jet.

Separate from all of the above, there are ongoing talks concerning the ​export of the SAMP-T air defense systems to Turkey, according to French Pres. Emmanuel ‌Macron.

Key takeaways: Apart from the tarmac exhibition of Trump and Erdoğan’s personal ties, the Turkish takeaways from the summit included the exhibition of Ankara as a power center and Turkey’s participation in many of the announced NATO defense projects.

“Turkey, as a NATO country, is taking part in most of the announced projects, underlining its role as a top contributor to the alliance’s goal of expanding defense capacity,” a Turkish foreign ministry official told Turkey recap. “We are happy with the general outcome of the summit so far.”

The Ankara Summit Declaration text can also be interpreted as a boost for the inclusion of Turkey into more programs as leaders agreed to work on eliminating “defense trade barriers among allies.” Caveat: NATO Sec. Gen. Mark Rutte repeatedly insisted F-35s are a “bilateral issue.”

My takeaway: While the NATO family photos will transmit what happened in Ankara to the world, the police officers on nearly every Çankaya street corner and the endless billboards advertising music concerts and F1 racing transmitted another message to visitors:

The Turkish state is a capable partner and normal things happen here, too—just like in your country—despite the headlines about arrested opposition leaders, journalists and suspected dissidents. The billboards covered more than the cityscape.

Interview with Haluk Görgün: Turkish defense industry courts global partners

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In 1983, a Rolling Stone review of our NATO anthem said “the emotions are so raw that the song nearly goes out of control.”

Same goes for next week’s summit. Sing it! NATO se, NATO sa, NATO Aspava.

In this week’s recap:

• The pre-summit view from Ankara

• Turkey eyes EU ties, US jet deal

• CHP purges deepen, splinter party chance grows

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• AKP doctor orders surprise home visits

Also from us this week:

• Podcast: Dimitar Bechev on Turkey’s role in NATO and European security

Ankara’s finally getting the attention it deserves. Next week’s NATO summit will not only spotlight the Turkish capital’s role in regional defense but also its newfound beauty amid last-minute preparations that have fueled some excellent jokes.

In the run-up events, the host city’s goals are two-fold: Promote alliance cohesion and prevent protests like those seen during the 2004 NATO summit in Istanbul.

Street-level preparations: Protests have already begun in various forms throughout Turkey, where 26 to 61 percent of citizens support NATO depending on the survey. That said, mounted police officers are on patrol and 56,000 security personnel will be on duty in Ankara.

Strict security measures have banned gatherings, events and protests, with 103 people and civil society leaders arrested last week on anti-terror charges following dawn raids. Many local news organizations have also been denied press credentials to cover the summit.

In lighter top-down measures, airport taxi drivers have a new dress code and will distribute Turkish delights to visitors—fueling stereotypes for at least another decade or two. Plus, we finally got an official map of which roads will be closed for convoys.

In recent tours of the city, Turkey recap observed work crews painting new murals (often rushed floral patterns) and erecting billboard fences along convoy routes—apparently designed to block city scenes deemed undesirable.

While some billboards feature pro-NATO messages (pictured above), others promote Turkish defense products and cultural events, with Tayfun missile and Hürjet ads running alongside Gorillaz and DJ Tiësto concert promotions—not to be confused with Teknofest.

Palace-level expectations: Amplifying long-held policy objectives, the Turkish government has consistently sought to present the nation as a central NATO ally while showcasing its growing weapons manufacturing base to allied countries seeking to boost defense spending.

Speaking Monday, Pres. Erdoğan said the alliance is at a “historic turning point,” and that Turkey is among the nations that “best grasps the spirit of the new era.”

“Threats such as war, crisis, terrorism and irregular migration, particularly along the eastern and southeastern borders of our alliance, necessitate a reshaping of our understanding of security,” he said.

Erdoğan’s governing coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli echoed similar language Tuesday, stating Turkey “will play a leading role in reshaping the alliance’s future.”

Analysis: While much of the international summit coverage will likely anchor on US Pres. Donald Trump and his actions, the Turkish government will seek out an increasingly central role in European defense discussions to prepare for a more Euro-centric “NATO 3.0,” as recently described by US Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth.

“Looking ahead, there are different models on how the European security architecture could evolve. The most likely model is a stronger European pillar within NATO,” said Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, the US German Marshall Fund’s managing director of south and wider Europe as well as regional director for Turkey.

“If that happens, Turkey would like to be part of that pillar, not outside of it,” Ünlühisarcıklı told Turkey recap.

Kallas when you’re ready: Turkey eyes EU ties, US jet deal

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Roads first made Ankara and then its viral trends. This week’s social media phenomenon involves testing which cars can conquer a very steep incline in Çankaya. Toros lover, there’s no other.

In this week’s recap:

• CHP camps signal party split

• Opposition resignations and hesitations

• Trump pushes $700M jet engine sale to Turkey

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Summit prep unleashes AI maps, fake news and dawn raids

Also from us this week:

• Ousted CHP Deputy Chair Ilhan Uzgel on his party’s leadership struggle

There’s a growing chance Turkey’s main opposition party will soon see its cadres part ways.

With compromise unlikely more than a month after a court reinstalled former CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, party factions are increasingly signaling a potential split.

The majority of party members—and their electorate—are expected to stick with ousted CHP chair Özgür Özel and his next step will be publicized soon, a CHP MP told Turkey recap, requesting anonymity to speak openly about party dynamics.

“July is an important deadline for discussions about forming a new party,” the MP said. “The judicial year will end, and courts will go on recess until September. We expect a decision [on a splinter party] before the break.”

What happened: Speaking Tuesday at the CHP parliamentary group meeting, Özel said the party “has been effectively shut down by a palace coup,” adding that current party representatives were appointed by a “judge acting under the instructions of the AKP.”

“We are waging a great struggle within the party. We will resist to the end. We will either find a way or create one,” Özel said, drawing fervent applause from his audience.

As covered in previous recaps, both Özel and his supporters have emphasized that creating or joining another party would be considered a last-resort option if Kılıçdaroğlu cannot be persuaded to hold a party congress in the near-term.

At the same time, they have reiterated that July represents a deadline for such a decision, citing concerns that Özel would be ineligible to run in snap elections if they are held this year. Essentially, anything is possible, and staying in leadership limbo limits Özel’s options.

Camp Kılıçdaroğlu: As for the other side, Kılıçdaroğlu unapologetically doubled down on his stances—including lifting immunities—during a two-hour live TV interview Friday night that is summarized here.

Regarding prospects for a party congress, which would allow CHP members to elect their leadership, Kılıçdaroğlu said a vote was possible in “four to five months,” though not with the current party delegates.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s spokesperson Müslim Sarı later said the process for an ordinary congress would begin in early September.

Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu’s administration continues to “purify” the party ranks with anti-corruption purges that will affect the congress vote results.

The CHP Central Executive Board (MYK) Tuesday dissolved the party’s Antalya and Kayseri provincial organizations. Seventy-four party members, including some of the recently dismissed, issued a statement Wednesday saying they did not recognize Kılıçdaroğlu’s expulsions.

The clock is ticking: The CHP MP quoted above said the Özel camp is working to trigger a party congress as soon as possible, but the source expressed reservations.

“Whoever made the ruling to reinstall Kılıçdaroğlu will also block or delay the appeals process and all legal efforts to reunite the CHP,” the CHP MP told Turkey recap.

The source added this is a “stressful” time for the party and expressed frustration over the national media attention on internal party politics, which serves to undermine the opposition’s image as a viable competitor in the next election cycle.

“This is a maneuver by Erdoğan to make the opposition inefficient and weak. I believe that whatever happens next, it should happen quickly so we can turn back to our main job, which is to struggle for power in this country,” the CHP MP said, referring to winning elections.

“If this goes on for months or years, the people will punish all of us,” the source added.

Cowed control: Opposition resignations and hesitations

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Istanbul’s handsome ‘corn star’ is overrated. Say hello to Adana’s wayward watermelon man.

In this week’s recap:

• Push for party vote deepens CHP crisis

• Breakaway party prospects and Özel’s voter share

• Justice minister faces EU sanctions

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Turkey loses match, wins social media

Also from us this week:

• Olesya Vartanyan on what’s next for Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan ties

• Wouter Massink on how new EU laws could worsen Adana’s waste problem

Always creating and defining our current moment, Pres. Erdoğan put it best Friday when he said:

“The nation has dropped everything and is watching the CHP every day like an action movie. It’s not a political party, it’s more like a fight club.”

We’re surely watching and there are definitely competing factions, but if we’re going to use the Fight Club metaphor, I have to ask: Is reinstalled CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu playing the part of a breakaway Brad Pitt or an interjecting Jared Leto?

Perhaps, the next vote will tell. When and how that comes about is the main subject of today’s issue, but to summarize: Supporters of ousted CHP chair Özgür Özel are calling for a party congress—to vote on the now-contested party leadership—as Kılıçdaroğlu purges CHP members, restructuring the party ranks while deferring calls for a party congress.

Failure to reach an agreement could force Özel to form a new political party or join an existing one (the details of which are covered below).

What happened: Both camps avoided last week’s “fight scenes” by declining to hold the regular parliamentary group meeting this week. Instead of battling for the podium, the Özel camp submitted a petition signed by 833 party delegates calling for an extraordinary congress.

The Kılıçdaroğlu camp, since taking over the party headquarters, has reiterated that a congress can only be held after the appeals process is completed on the court ruling that reinstalled Kılıçdaroğlu last month.

Pushing back on the Kılıçdaroğlu camp’s congress stance, CHP deputy group chair Murat Emir gave a press statement Wednesday to highlight the party bylaws requiring a congress within 45 days if a “simple majority of congress delegates” requests it—which is what happened yesterday.

As reported here last week, there are many gray areas in party congress rules so what comes next involves speculation, but party staffers interviewed by Turkey recap said they do not expect a compromise from the Kılıçdaroğlu camp anytime soon.

Purges: Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu continues a top-down drive to “purify” the party ranks of alleged corruption. Removal procedures resumed Friday for CHP Mersin Mezitli Mayor Serkan Tuncer and Bolu Mayor Tanju Özcan, who resigned in response.

Expulsions were then extended to 9 CHP MPs and approved by court authorities. Combined with yesterday’s resignation by CHP Istanbul MP ​​Nimet Özdemir, the CHP seat count in parliament fell from 138 to 128 at the time of writing. Stüdyo recap reported more purges are expected, especially in provincial branches.

In a press event Wednesday evening, Özel called on existing and recently purged party members to join him in a pro-democracy vigil.

“An unelected administration is taking over,” Özel said, condemning recent decisions as “illegitimate and unlawful.”

He added, “We invite our party members to stand guard for democracy and to protect Atatürk’s legacy … We stand behind our elected provincial chairpersons.”

Analysis: Osman Sert, research director at PanoramaTR, a public polling and risk analysis firm based in Ankara, believes Kılıçdaroğlu’s approach since retaking office has made it “impossible” for supporters of Özel or jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu to remain in the same party.

“What is certain is this is not sustainable and, probably, in the coming couple of months, we will be seeing two separate political parties in the [main] opposition,” Sert told Turkey recap in a phone interview Wednesday.

He said the foundation of Turkish democracy is deteriorating “brick by brick” amid the ongoing judicial pressure on the nation’s main opposition party. Yet, Sert underlined that the electoral field remains competitive despite recent developments.

“The ballot still matters. The president and the government are still trying to tailor the elections, the opposition and the candidates,” Sert said. “If this was not so, he [Erdoğan] wouldn’t be doing such things.”

“This fight will continue till the bottom,” he continued. “Till the last moment that the Supreme Election Council declares who is the candidate and what time the elections are happening.”

Split the deference: Breakaway party prospects and Özel’s voter share

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In this week’s recap:

• CHP locked in its own power struggle

• Congress to constitution: The math behind the strategies

• Peace process updates

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Ankara to stop everything for NATO summit

Also from us this week:

• Anna Montraveta Riu and Laia Palau Biel on land expropriations in the quake zone

• Yıldız Tar joins Recap radio to outline pending LGBT legislation in Turkey

• Diego Cupolo introduces Turkey recap’s manifesto and code of ethics

In the CHP leadership struggle, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu took the social media accounts and Özgür Özel retained the parliamentary podium—for now.

There are many moving parts (detailed below), but the key trends are:

1. A court ruling sparked a leadership crisis in the main opposition party

2. Erdoğan has since referred to this crisis as an “internal” party dispute

3. Ongoing disputes between CHP factions are confirming Erdoğan’s words

… and there are few other options for ex-CHP chair Özel as he works to retake the party leadership before the current CHP chair, Kılıçdaroğlu, expels Özel supporters from the party in a looming “anti-corruption” campaign.

What happened: Two hours before Kılıçdaroğlu held today’s CHP party council meeting, 28 council members resigned in an attempt to force an extraordinary congress. (We’re still waiting to see what happens next.)

A day prior, the Kılıçdaroğlu-led CHP Central Executive Committee requested the permanent expulsion of nine MPs who support Özel. While announcing the decision, the Kılıçdaroğlu camp spox said the nine MPs had been “removed from all their current positions within the party.”

The blow-by-blow came after clashes nearly broke out between opposing CHP camps outside parliament Tuesday morning. Amid uncertainty over who would speak in the parliamentary group meeting, Özel and Kılıçdaroğlu supporters faced off until CHP Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş called for calm on X.

Yavaş reportedly threatened to leave politics if the CHP descended into a street melee. His efforts deescalated tensions and both CHP leaders delivered speeches Tuesday—Özel in parliament and Kılıçdaroğlu in the party headquarters.

What voters think: In a recent MetroPOLL survey, the majority of respondents from all political parties—except the MHP—said they did not approve of Kılıçdaroğlu’s installment by court ruling. A new KONDA survey found comparable sentiments.

Throughout, suspicions of CHP-AKP coordination keep swirling after a journalist Wednesday asked Erdoğan if he had met with Kılıçdaroğlu but did not get a reply.

The inquiry came after political observers noticed that Kılıçdaroğlu and Erdoğan used similar language in their speeches this week. For example, by:

1. Likening CHP corruption to a nightclub operation.

2. Claiming Turkey’s influence should expand to former Ottoman territories.

What’s next: Everything depends on the timing of the next CHP congress, which allows CHP members to vote on their leadership. Yet, as with the lawmakers, the party’s lawyers are also divided into opposing camps.

Some legal advisors argue an extraordinary congress is needed before July 26 to safeguard CHP’s eligibility in the next elections, while others say the appeals process must conclude on the CHP congress case before a new congress can be held.

In both scenarios, experts argue a party congress is the only “legitimate” conclusion for the CHP crisis. Meanwhile, party members interviewed by Turkey recap this week stressed the timing of the congress will be the key determinant for who leads the CHP next.

“What we’re seeing is a game of chicken,” said a CHP staffer speaking on condition of anonymity. “There are many gray areas in the rules on party congresses, so both sides are trying to dominate the discourse about what comes next.”

“Whoever blinks first, loses,” the source added, stating the Özel camp is working to trigger a congress while pro-Özel members are still in the party. Given enough time, Kılıçdaroğlu is expected to clear out all CHP structures with new appointees.

“We will practice clean politics. We will dismiss all those who are corrupt,” Kılıçdaroğlu said at the CHP headquarters Tuesday as the crowd chanted “expel”.

“We will work together with dedication, we will not work for personal gain,” he added.

Congress to constitution: The math behind the strategies

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In this week’s recap:

• Opposition camps regroup, Kılıçdaroğlu digs in

• Where key players stand on the CHP takeover

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• NATO’s future depends on Trump’s mood in Ankara

Also from us this week:

• Noah Bonsey joined Recap radio to discuss Syria and SDF integration

• Wouter Massink and Daniel Thorpe on Turkey’s fast-tracked mining boom

• Diego Cupolo and Emily Rice Johnson respond to reader mail

• Did we mention we’re throwing a party in Ankara and you’re invited?

Okay, this is not your ordinary news cycle, and this is not your ordinary recap.

Since we last reported on street clashes following CHP head Özgür Özel’s ouster, Turkey’s main opposition party has essentially fractured into two camps and everyone’s trying to guess what comes next — including who will post next on the CHP’s official X account, which is dormant.

It’s a real mess, so in true Marie Kondo fashion, we’re going to compartmentalize the main developments and reactions, though we can’t guarantee they’ll “spark joy”:

Camp K: Re-instated CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu took the stage at the party’s Ankara headquarters Saturday with anti-corruption slogans focused on “cleansing” the party of “bribery” and other immoral actions.

The narrative closely echoed MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli’s media comments three days earlier, and reinforced analyses that Kılıçdaroğlu’s return is part of an elite pact to eliminate effective opposition in Turkey, as Sinem Adar argued here.

Yesterday, Kılıçdaroğlu’s spokesperson said the official CHP chair would speak at the party’s next parliamentary group meeting, on Jun. 9, and convene a party council on Jun. 11, though both are subject to change, according to our CHP sources and Stüdyo recap reporting.

This comes as Kılıçdaroğlu continues to purge party staffers while unveiling a new 19-member central executive committee for the party.

Camp Ö: Former CHP head Özgür Özel led rallies in Izmir, Manisa and Ankara before speaking at this week’s CHP parliamentary group meeting.

Following a streak of street-level mobilization, Özel’s address Tuesday was oddly ordinary and uneventful — as in he brought picket signs to condemn PlayStation prices — before a packed and lively audience.

Since his removal, Özel has been campaigning for an immediate party congress to re-elect the CHP leadership. The prospects for a speedy convention remain unclear, though Özel’s spokesperson has argued the CHP may lose eligibility to participate in snap elections if a congress is not held this July.

On Wednesday, Özel had collected more than 850 signatures from the party’s 1,130 delegates to hold an extraordinary congress. Kılıçdaroğlu has said a congress would be held after the court of appeals issues a final ruling on the CHP case. Stay tuned for more reporting on this.

New party prospects: When asked if he would launch his own political party if he fails to retake the CHP leadership, Özel has repeatedly stated he prefers not to split the party, but it remains a possibility in a “worst-case scenario.”

An April survey by MetroPoll found 66 percent of CHP supporters would vote for Özel’s new party, while about 22 percent would stick with Kılıçdaroğlu. Across all parties, support for an Özel-led party was nearly 35 percent.

Speaking to Turkey recap this morning, Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science and chair of international relations at Işık University in Istanbul, said Özel’s camp will likely try all institutional and procedural avenues to win back the CHP leadership.

If Özel’s efforts fail, a new party should be expected by the end of 2026, Demiralp said.

“Özel’s popularity among CHP voters is very high,” she told Turkey recap. “Our recent research shows that about 70 percent of CHP voters state that they would vote for Özel’s new party if he founded one. Among these voters, the level of anger towards Kılıçdaroğlu matches the anger towards Erdoğan.”

She added that Özel may also be appealing to a “significant portion” of undecided/swing voters, adding this segment tends to be less concerned about CHP dynamics, and more frustrated about “the politicization of the courts, democratic backsliding and the economic costs of the whole process.”

Vapid response: Where key players stand on the CHP takeover

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Don’t worry. We’ll miss you, too, and have some newsletters in the pipeline for the coming weeks, including a special Q&A podcast.

So, Ask Us Anything now using this anonymous form or simply hit the ‘reply’ button on this email. We read all our messages and invite questions on all things Turkey and Turkey recap. Cheers!

In this week’s recap:

• Breaking: Court rules to dissolve CHP leadership

• Turkey-Germany strategic dialogue revived

• Peace process gets quasi-modal

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Ankara scouts jogging route for Macron

Also from us this week:

• Jalel Harchaoui joins our podcast to outline Turkey’s changing Libya policy

• RSVP here for the first Turkey recap get-together in Ankara. +40 people already signed up. Come out and say hi.

As this newsletter was sent out, an Ankara Court of Appeals ruled to provisionally suspend the leadership of CHP chair Özgür Özel and the party administration. Former CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will take over the party leadership.

Kılıçdaroğlu led the CHP from 2010 to 2023, and just yesterday, he reclaimed the news cycle with a video statement, in which he said the CHP cannot be a “sanctuary” for corruption, and that the party knows how to cleanse itself “when necessary”.

This comes as the CHP faces the concurrent pressures of non-stop municipal corruption investigations and the lawsuit against the party’s leadership structure stemming from alleged irregularities during the CHP’s 2023 internal elections — otherwise known as the congress trial.

What it means: A “mutlak butlan” or “absolute nullity” ruling essentially voids the current CHP leadership and its actions following the 2023 party congress.

Kılıçdaroğlu had not denied claims he would retake the party chairmanship through a court ruling, though many CHP members and voters previously told Turkey recap they would interpret such a comeback as the equivalent of a “kayyum” or a state-appointed trustee to lead the CHP.

In the broader context, this long-standing issue is resurfacing amid more fervent snap election speculations than usual in Ankara (covered in the last recap).

Early election link? A CHP leadership crisis could trigger an early vote, though some AKP members have reportedly voiced opposition to the heavy-handed crackdown on the CHP, while some pro-gov media figures stated an “absolute nullity” ruling could come this week, which it did.

Earlier this month, former AKP deputy Şamil Tayyar said a court decision had been reached but not publicized. Though last week on X, he said he did not expect early elections due to the decision.

“There is a lot of movement in Ankara,” he wrote, adding that “politics from July onward seem poised to enter a new track.”

Video reactions: Looping back to Kılıçdaroğlu, his statement Wednesday was not well received on social media, where many openly blamed him for Erdoğan’s 2023 election victory. Within the CHP, initial responses were more respectful towards the ex-chair while denying claims of wrongdoing by the party.

CHP parliamentary advisors told Turkey recap the party would continue to address internal party disagreements privately to preserve its public image.

That said, many party members are convinced the AKP’s aim is to maintain the semblance of political opposition in Turkey while preventing any true challenges to power, as seen with the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu.

Or as Özel wrote in The Economist Tuesday: The AKP’s “goal is not to eliminate the opposition but to tame it: allowing it to contest elections, and even govern big cities, while forcing it to operate within narrowing constraints.”

Analysis: Speaking to Turkey recap today, Berk Esen, associate professor of political science at Sabancı University in Istanbul, said Kılıçdaroğlu sought to prepare the stage for his political return with his video statement Wednesday.

Esen continued, stating Kılıçdaroğlu would initially face backlash from CHP core voters but it’d be short-lived since he’d shape the party to accommodate his leadership ahead of the next party congress, which is not planned for another year or so.

“During this time, he can purge party officials at the local level, try to generate support, not so much among the base, but among the party cadres who would now see him as the leader and — in order to rise through the party ranks — they would pay homage to him,” Esen told Turkey recap.

“I really think that he wants leadership for himself. He’s out for vengeance,” Esen concluded. “He didn’t really accept losing the party leadership in the November 2023 congress. And he probably accuses those who defected from his side to join Özgür Özel of being traitors.”

Dost Kapital: Turkey-Germany strategic dialogue revived after 12-year pause

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In this week’s recap:

• Belgian delegation spotlights Turkey-EU defense talks

• Election rumors, CHP mayors join AKP

• PKK talks inch forward, Öcalan awaits visitors

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Sacrificial animals make a run for it

Also from us this week:

• Nareg Seferian lays out the regional implications for the Jun. 7 Armenian elections

• Please take a moment to complete our reader survey. Help us, help you.

• Also, Turkey recap is hosting a party in Ankara, and you’re invited!

This week brought incremental developments in Turkish domestic politics, and potentially explosive election rumors that we cannot confirm (details below), so today’s top section focuses on the more concrete and fast-developing discussions regarding Turkey’s role in NATO.

It’s the back burner topic behind all foreign policy debates in Ankara, and it’s moving to center stage as the city prepares to host the alliance summit in July. High-level visits from Belgium this week — led by Queen Mathilde (pictured above) — also spotlighted Turkey’s potential defense partnerships with EU states.

What’s happening: As Washington looks to put more European defense responsibilities on European nations, officials in Ankara are working to underline messages of cohesion and solidarity within NATO while presenting Turkey’s defense industry as a critical manufacturing base to fill defense gaps in European security.

The argument has been made before, but it’s getting louder as the NATO summit approaches, providing Turkey the platform and opportunity to showcase its alliance contributions and defense sector — as it did in the recent SAHA International Expo and will continue to do for local audiences with a new TRT program on Turkey’s military capabilities.

Belçikanka: A snapshot of the current zeitgeist came with a five-day Belgian delegation visit, including more than 400 business leaders, that peaked with a Turkey-Belgium Industry Day event Wednesday.

The trends in Turkey-EU defense were made clear throughout the visit as Baykar chair Selçuk Bayraktar told Queen Mathilde that drones are among the most powerful deterrents, stating “If you produce enough of them, no one can attack you.”

In his meeting with the Queen Monday, Pres. Erdoğan emphasized the need for progress on Turkey’s EU membership, customs union modernization and he also underlined that “Turkey’s participation in the EU’s defense initiatives is in the mutual interest of all sides.”

For Belgium’s part, FM Maxime Prevot said Turkey is “guardian of the southeast flank of the European continent.” Though in an Anadolu Agency interview, Belgian Defense Min. Theo Francken went further by stating Belgium …

1. Supports customs union modernization

2. Backs Ankara’s immediate inclusion in the SAFE loan program

3. Is working on major drone-related projects worth more than $1 billion

AFP reported Turkey and Belgium signed nine defense agreements this week though details remain sparse.

“There are a lot of opportunities also for Turkish companies,” Francken told AA. “You are way ahead, so we have to catch up and we can learn a lot from you.”

Headwinds: As Turkey’s defense industry continues to secure bilateral deals with individual EU nations, bloc-wide defense integration with Turkey is complicated by distrust and varying degrees of perceived threats stemming from Ankara’s foreign policy objectives (mainly from Greece, the Republic of Cyprus and France).

Most concretely, such disagreements have led to Turkey’s exclusion from the initial set of SAFE loans. Supporters of Turkey’s omission often argue the program’s core aim is to encourage weapons manufacturing within the EU, as opposed to the continued outsourcing of key components.

Meanwhile, proponents of Turkey’s integration argue Europe currently lacks production capacity that Turkish defense manufacturers can help fill — at least in the short-term. Or as the music group War put it in 1975: “Why can’t we be friends?”.

Still, amid the debates on Turkey’s exclusion from SAFE, the nation’s role in NATO is deepening following two announcements this spring on the establishment of a Maritime Component Command in Istanbul and Multinational Corps Headquarters in southern Turkey.

When asked to comment on the contrasting trend lines in Ankara’s regional defense role, a Turkish Foreign Ministry official said growing instability is creating new openings for Turkey-EU defense integration, but the initiative to advance cooperation comes mostly from Ankara.

“The [NATO] centers are nothing new, they have been planned for years,” the official told Turkey recap. “The issue is that we are pitching many ideas to our European partners, and we’re not receiving similar offers for cooperation from our allies. There is little reciprocity.”

“We are very often initiating the conversations on deepening solidarity and find the outreach to be one-sided, which is problematic for bolstering regional defense in these times.”

Snapchat: Election rumors, CHP mayors join AKP

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That means we’ll soon start publishing Turkey-focused climate change coverage here and, in Turkish, on studyorecap.com, where we’ll also launch a Turkish-language podcast series hosted by Yıldız Yazıcıoğlu on all things COP31.

Subscribe to Stüdyo recap if you haven’t already. Otherwise, stay tuned! We’ve been planting many seeds that will sprout soon — all made possible by your support. A big thank you to our readers!

In this week’s recap:

• Bahçeli wants a status update for Öcalan

• CHP plays offense, congress case looms

• Ankara-Yerevan advance normalization efforts

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Turkish language watchdog eyes diacritic mârks

Also from us this week:

• Suzy Hansen joins Recap radio to talk about how Turkey changed under Erdoğan

• Tomorrow: Emily Rice Johnson covers the latest inflation bump in Economy recap

Disclosure: This week’s main news centers on the peace process, so let me again disclose that my wife is an MP with DEM Party.

After months of abstract concepts and debates, the PKK peace process took on a more solid form this week with the release of a 15-volume book series on Kurdish literature and history by the Ministry of Culture and Mardin Artuklu University.

This flew under the radar and is not the much-awaited legal reforms, but it represents a meaningful recognition of Kurdish culture in Anatolia — the denial of which is at the core of the 40-year conflict the PKK and the Turkish state are currently trying to end.

Yet, how both sides are approaching a resolution remains highly abstract, mainly through the renaming of groups and individuals this week in keeping with the leftist tradition of changing words while leaving power structures intact. Though some real changes are coming maybe …

What happened: Following reports the peace talks had stalled, Pres. Erdoğan’s coalition partner and MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli called on the state Tuesday to grant the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan a more official status as a chief negotiator in the process (which he is).

This mirrors one of the requests shared by the PKK leadership the same day, when they announced the group would rebrand itself as an “Apoist Movement”, stemming from the “Apo” nickname for Öcalan.

In their statement, the militants said they had begun to disarm, completed withdrawal from border areas and released prisoners associated with Turkish intelligence as requested by state officials.

But they complained that Ankara has taken “no practical steps” to implement the proposals in the parliamentary peace process report finalized this February.

To facilitate the coming reforms, Bahçeli called for the establishment of a “Peace Process and Politicization Coordination Office.” It’s worth noting this all comes after he met with Erdoğan last week (pictured above), and the president has yet to comment on the status updates.

What’s changing: The peace talks remain opaque and public information is sparse, but the trend lines above will need to intersect at Imralı island, where Öcalan is imprisoned and may soon oversee some form of coordination office, according to Roj Girasun, director of Rawest Research.

“The new ‘status’ concept most likely refers to the redefinition of conditions for communication, meetings, work and political dialogue,” Girasun told Turkey recap.

“In practice, this could mean the opening of contact channels with different actors, further formalizing Imralı as a regular negotiation center.”

He added improved living conditions for Öcalan may also come at later stages, possibly in the form of new house arrest parameters.

None of this is new to close followers of the peace process, but drafting policies and executing them are two separate and complicated tasks. For now, the main takeaway is that the process has not stalled completely amid ongoing negotiations.

“I think [Bahçeli’s] speech is one that can breathe new life into the process, ease it, and pave the way for its ​progress,” DEM Party deputy group chair Gülüstan Kılıç Koçyiğit told Reuters Tuesday.

What’s next: MHP officials continue to lay the rhetorical groundwork for reforms, most recently with this commentary by Bahçeli’s advisor — who sells it as a loss for the US and Israel.

Meanwhile, MHP lawmakers told Stüdyo recap they believed the process should not be tied to elections, arguing a lasting resolution requires a timeline independent of calculated political payoffs.

As for the AKP, some officials remain more cautious, telling the BBC they want confirmation and verification systems in place to track the disarmament. Intel chief Ibrahim Kalın, who’s been out of the spotlight for a while, is currently overseeing these preparations, according to Türkiye Gazetesi.

The rest remains to be seen. Looking at the broader picture, Rawest research director Girasun said the peace process “passed the Syria test”, where SDF-Damascus integration is underway. It’s also passing the Iran test, after initial concerns of Kurdish separatism across Turkey’s eastern border.

That said, Girasun said the main obstacles remain in Turkey’s domestic sphere.

“The greatest dilemma I have observed regarding the process … is the difference and the gap between Erdoğan and Bahçeli. This largely stems from Erdoğan’s cautiousness due to elections,” he told Turkey recap.

“As the window narrows toward the election, Erdoğan’s caution regarding taking deep-rooted and radical steps may increase, the pressure from the MHP may rise, and the impatience of Kurdish politics may grow,” he added. “Managing the tension within these three areas will be the new test of the process.”

Özgüerilla tactics: CHP plays offense, congress case looms

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In this week’s recap:

• AKP prepping for Nov. 2027 elections

• Yavaş in the spotlight, CHP shifts to fieldwork

• Horizon Europe debate further bruises Turkey-EU ties

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Göbeklitepe visitors are not impressed

Also from us this week:

• Nebahat Tanrıverdi Yaşar on Turkey’s military and energy projects in Somalia

• Emily Rice Johnson dropped This Day In Turkey’s May edition for news tracking tools subscribers

Not a week goes by in Ankara without speculation over the next election date. It’s the local sport. It’s also a great conversation-starter when meeting strangers or when trying to revive a boring dinner date.

The heart beats faster for Turkish politics. Especially after Hürriyet reported Sunday the ruling AKP has already started preparing for elections in November 2027.

Turkey recap readers will know this was the most cited date for the next vote — slated for May 2028 at the latest — and the apparent confirmation by a leading pro-government newspaper serves to firm up the election date further.

Of course, other media outlets have made the case for election dates before and after Nov. 2027, including Turkey recap, so the following is a look at the current narratives and their merits.

What does the facts say: Turkey’s constitution allows two terms per president unless an early election is called or the constitution is changed.

For context, Pres. Erdoğan is currently serving his third term as president (elected in 2014, 2018 and 2023), but he is technically serving his second term under the executive presidential system that began in 2018, according to a Supreme Election Council decision.

Before that, he served as Prime Minister from 2003-2014, which also doesn’t count.

All that to say, Erdoğan is just facing his latest term limit dilemma, and it’s the AKP’s duty to fix it. But they don’t have the parliamentary votes to change the constitution again (at least for now), so calling an early election seems like the clearest path for a third Erdoğan term under the current legal system (subject to change).

What does the reporting say: Early elections can be held any time before May 2028. So, sources cited in the Hürriyet report said they want the next vote to coincide with the AKP’s 25^th anniversary in November 2027.

To read between the lines, this would be an emotional appeal to party supporters, who would need to take an extra psychological step to betray the AKP on such an occasion — regardless of the state of the economy. Think of it like a divorce on a wedding anniversary.

Yet, according to the BBC, an early election is not likely unless “absolutely necessary”, as might be the case if Erdoğan wants to secure the third term route. If so, the report states parliament could call for snap elections slightly before May 2028 to greenlight Erdoğan’s candidacy.

In a scenario where Turkey’s economy remains under pressure from the Iran war, other AKP sources told Türkiye Gazetesi that holding elections in the spring of 2028 would allow the party to “gain an extra 6-7 months” for economic mitigation policies.

Meanwhile, our team at Stüdyo recap reported, the AKP is publicly stating elections will be held in May 2028 as they prepare for elections in the second half of 2027. For their part, opposition sources told us they expect the AKP to introduce economic reforms, criminal justice reforms and other pre-election initiatives, though not until 2027.

Analysis: Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science and chair of international relations at Işık University in Istanbul, said the fact that both the incumbent bloc and the opposition are now openly entertaining early election scenarios makes the discussion more credible than before.

Given his mandate till May 2028, she said Erdoğan had little incentive to call for early elections, but the playing field is changing.

“Recent polling trends suggesting some recovery in support — possibly due to the rally around the flag effects of the Iran war — may be feeding a perception within the ruling camp that conditions are becoming more favorable,” Demiralp told Turkey recap.

She noted CHP chair Özgür Özel has also been calling for elections with greater frequency, adding pressure to the mix as the party’s presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu faces multiple trials.

“Early elections become more likely when both sides believe they have a viable path to victory,” Demiralp said. “We may be approaching such a moment.”

“That said,” she continued, “this window could be short-lived. If external factors — such as regional tensions involving Iran — subside and polling trends shift again, the current alignment of incentives could quickly dissolve.”

The Mansurian Candidate: Yavaş in the spotlight, CHP shifts to fieldwork

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47 years ago today: TRT’s first International Children’s Festival aired with great disco gyrations.

Happy National Sovereignty and Children’s Day from Ankara! (and Şanlıurfa!!)

In this week’s recap:

• Rutte visits Ankara, von der Leyen tests ties

• US envoy scorned for anti-democratic comments

• More CHP mayors removed from office

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Sheep joins wild goat herd, owner bids farewell

Also from us this week:

• Alan Makovsky gauges Ankara’s diplomacy pivot and US-Turkey ties on Recap radio

• Yıldız Yazıcıoğlu on ‘absolute nullity’ and possible developments for the CHP

EU leaders are supposed to praise Turkey publicly and exclude it privately. European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen broke protocol and put the NATO chief in a rut during his visit to Ankara this week.

In a conversation with Germany’s Zeit newspaper published Sunday, Leyen said:

“We must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Turkey or China. We must think bigger and geostrategically.”

The unusual language for an official EU candidate country comes as European nations seek to deepen defense cooperation with Turkey to help deter Russian threats amid ambivalence from Washington on transatlantic security guarantees.

To call it awkward timing does not begin to describe the polarizing effects in Brussels, where the spotlight returned to the EU’s inconsistent messaging and lack of unity on Turkey as NATO Sec. Gen. Mark Rutte was in Ankara … to bolster the Western alliance with Turkey.

Reactions: Damage control duties first fell on Paula Pinho, von der Leyen’s chief spokesperson, who tried to clarify the remarks with variations of this quote:

The Turkey reference was a “recognition of its geopolitical clout, size and ambitions — not least in the Western Balkans — and not meant as a comparison with any other country,” Pinho told Bloomberg.

In response, AKP deputy chair and spox Ömer Çelik issued a long list of criticisms for EU leaders in this interview with Anadolu Agency Wednesday.

“Turkey’s Balkan vision is based on peace, opposed to the divisive policies we call Balkanization and is more based on values. For von der Leyen to include Turkey among the countries she positions as opposed to the EU is a truly grave mental and political contradiction,” Çelik said.

Von der Leyen’s comment also did not pair well with statements by Marta Kos, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, who Monday said: “We need Turkey in light of the changing geopolitical realities in Europe and the Middle East.”

Nacho Sánchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, was also critical. When asked if he thought the statements were intentional, he told Turkey recap:

“I don’t think von der Leyen purportedly wanted to depict Turkey as a threat on the same level as Russia and China, but if it is simply a misstep and not a mistake, it’s very enlightening about the attitude of von der Leyen — always dismissing and forgetting Turkey as a candidate country,” Amor said in a phone call Wednesday.

Rutte in Ankara: Local news channels covered the episode on a split screen as Rutte visited the Turkish capital this week in preparation for July’s NATO summit in Ankara — which got a new logo with the presidential palace on it, in what may be another unintended political message that offers deep insights on Turkey’s western partners.

While in town, Rutte met with Pres. Erdoğan, FM Hakan Fidan, Defense Min. Yaşar Güler and visited the facilities of Turkish defense giant Aselsan, where he praised the nation’s young engineers and ‘defense industry revolution’.

Analysis: Putting it all together, Turkey appears to be hedging on Europe by cooperating with Russia and China. Meanwhile, Europe is also hedging by both working with Turkey and taking precautions, said Dimitar Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Programme at St. Antony’s College and author of the upcoming book The Scramble for Europe.

Bechev told Turkey recap that Ankara is pursuing “soft revisionism” with the end goal of having more power to modify the institutions and rules governing Europe. He noted this does not mean Ankara poses an existential threat to Europe.

“It [Turkey] seeks equal status and is against scrutiny into its domestic politics,” Bechev said, referring to the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu and other political repression. “The EU’s response is to offer incentives for cooperation. Not fight back. Especially after Russia invaded Ukraine.”

He summed up the EU approach as an attempt to “Co-opt Erdoğan. Not contain him.”

Cooperation vs. candidacy: Asked to comment on what this all means for Turkey-EU defense cooperation, Nacho Sánchez Amor told Turkey recap:

A defense partnership “is convenient and could be important, but this idea that we need Turkey is exaggerated and it’s not depicting the real thing. Turkey has not been allowed to enter SAFE and nothing happened,” he said, referring to the EU defense program.

“Sometimes, we exaggerate … to compensate for the lack of commitment to the accession process,” Amor continued. “The more we underline the partnership … the less we underline the accession process and the status of Turkey as a candidate country.”

Show him the conquista-door: US envoy scorned for anti-democratic comments

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But why did he announce it with a picture from Greece? Email us wrong answers only.

In this week’s recap:

• Probes loom for CHP’s Ankara mayor

• Opposition playbook and election prospects

• Antalya to host security pact talks on Iran war

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• East Med broils over işkembe soup and halloumi

Also from us this week:

• László Szerencsés on the Hungary elections and takeaways for Turkey

• Ceren Bayar and Yıldız Yazıcıoğlu assess CHP’s by-election strategy on Stüdyo recap

There are many new readers here—Hoş geldin!—so here are four things you need to know about the judicial pressure on Turkey’s main opposition CHP:

1. After gains in the 2024 local elections, the CHP has faced sprawling corruption investigations for about 1.5 years.

2. Many elected CHP officials have been removed from office and/or jailed before standing trial.

3. Throughout, Erdoğan and the CHP have threatened to pull large turps out of bags (a Turkish vegetable idiom explained here).

4. The largest turp actually came out of Batman this week at just under 4 kilos.

Now that we’re all caught up, the next turp is taking shape with looming investigations into CHP Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.

A popular figure with nationalist appeal, Yavaş is seen as a viable presidential contender after last year’s arrest of the CHP’s official candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu.

What happened: Interior Min. Mustafa Çiftçi authorized a second probe into Yavaş over the alleged misuse of Ankara Municipality vehicles for a 2023 election rally in Karabük. The Ankara mayor denied wrongdoing Tuesday, stating: “There is nothing to fear.”

“Granting permission for an investigation without concrete evidence is a violation of the law. This approach is nothing more than an attempt at intimidation and discrediting,” the Ankara municipality responded in a statement Tuesday.

CHP chair Özgür Özel added that Pres. Erdoğan has routinely made use of state vehicles and resources without similar inquiries.

For his part, Erdoğan criticized the CHP in a speech to AKP lawmakers Wednesday, saying:

“Turkey, which is experiencing a period of resurgence in global politics, is unfortunately experiencing a ‘period of decline’ in the municipalities run by the main opposition.”

Crackdown in context: The investigation into Turkey’s second-largest city comes amid a widening probe into its third largest, Izmir.

Former CHP Izmir mayor Tunç Soyer was re-arrested Wednesday after the party’s Ankara provincial chair Ümit Erkol was arrested after his detention last week. Both arrests are linked to bribery allegations involving IZBETON, a subsidiary of the Izmir municipality.

For the full picture, here’s a few more news items on the CHP this week:

• Bolu’s acting mayor was detained Friday and later arrested for an ongoing extortion investigation that jailed Bolu’s elected mayor in February.

• 31 people were detained Friday for a corruption probe into the CHP-led Yenişehir district municipality in Mersin.

• Bornova Mayor Ömer Eşki was released Friday though his municipality remains under investigation for alleged fraud.

• Former CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was sentenced to nearly a year in prison for insulting the president. His lawyer vowed to appeal the verdict.

• And the European Court of Human Rights notified Turkey of a case brought by Ekrem Imamoğlu regarding his pre-trial detention and investigations.

Analysis: Commenting on the investigations into Yavaş and other CHP officials, Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of the IstanPol Institute, said the key issue is “not so much their legal substance, but their political impact.”

“These cases function in two main ways. First, they damage the reputations of political figures, regardless of the eventual legal outcome,” Korkmaz told Turkey recap this morning.

“Second, even in the absence of a conviction, they can paralyze these actors—either by keeping them entangled in lengthy legal processes or, in some cases, through temporary detention. In this sense, the process itself becomes the punishment.”

She continued, stating the trajectory of the Yavaş investigation will be determined primarily through the government’s own “risk calculations.”

“More broadly, these judicial processes … constrain political actors by discouraging bold action, and they contribute to shaping public perception—reinforcing a narrative that no one within the CHP is ‘clean’,” Korkmaz added.

“In that sense, they operate as instruments of political control as much as legal proceedings.”

Process of alleviation: Opposition playbook and election prospects

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And more recently with the unfortunate 2007 film ‘300’, which had no links to the ‘War on Terror’, just like this newsletter has no links to the war on Iran.

Thank you to all our readers and contributors over the years. This is a shared milestone, reached through a shared dedication to balanced, trustworthy news—and puns.

In this week’s recap:

• 198 IS suspects detained over Israeli Consulate gunfight

• Ankara repositions itself amid regional turmoil

• CHP faces one court battle after another

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Police week brings flowers and fake fights

Also from us this week:

• Howard Eissenstat details the Turkey-Israel rivalry in a changing region on Recap radio

• Journalist Hilmi Hacaloğlu shares updates from the Istanbul Municipality trial on Stüdyo recap

Turkey’s recent experience with militant attacks is long, and another one got added to the list as regional turmoil appears to have played out in Istanbul once again this week.

Midday Tuesday, three armed militants in tactical gear attempted to attack a building housing the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul, resulting in a gun fight that left one attacker dead, the other two wounded and two police officers with minor injuries.

No motive has been publicized, and no Israeli staff were in the consulate, as they had been recalled in late 2023. Yet, initial reporting indicates the deceased attacker had Islamic State links.

Investigations ongoing: Turkish Justice Min. Akın Gürlek Wednesday announced a nationwide anti-IS operation, detaining 198 suspects in relation to the attack.

This comes as the two injured assailants remain in police custody, and new details emerge about the deceased attacker, who was identified as Yunus Emre Sarban.

Halk TV columnist Ismail Saymaz reported in detail about Sarban, who was charged with “IS membership” in 2019 on suspicion of preparing an attack, but was released after five months.

Sarban’s assets were later frozen in 2021 over links to IS financial networks and reactivated in August 2024 following his acquittal. The other two attackers were brothers and one had a criminal record for a drug offense, according to the interior minister.

Separately, Turkey’s personal care retail chain, Gratis, launched its own investigation and fired several employees for apparently ridiculing police responders during the attack and posting the video on social media. Eight Gratis staffers have been detained.

Responses: Like US envoy to Turkey Tom Barrack, Pres. Erdoğan quickly condemned the attack, adding: “We will not allow Turkey’s climate of security to be damaged by … provocations.”

Israel’s Foreign Ministry also condemned the event in a statement, while sharing appreciation for “Turkish security forces’ swift action in thwarting this attack.”

“The incident, coupled with Israel’s gratitude for the swift response of Turkish security forces, underscores a zero-tolerance policy regarding terrorist threats against Jewish or Israeli targets on Turkish soil,” Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told Turkey recap.

She added, “The incident also highlights that limited tactical cooperation between Israel and Turkey is still possible, and that ISIS remains a threat to Turkey.”

Advantage point: Ankara repositions itself amid regional turmoil

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No party like it’s 2002? You know those were different times.

In this week’s recap:

• CHP weighs options after detention wave

• Ankara works to mitigate Iran conflict

• MHP resignation spotlights power struggle

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Izmir serves olive oil on tap (bring your own bread)

Also from us this week:

• Sinan Ülgen outlined how Ankara views the Iran war on Recap radio

• Our April editions of This day in Turkey and the Events calendar are now available for News Tracking Tools subscribers

In theory, people vote for political representation. In practice, one in five votes has been misrepresented since the 2024 municipal elections in Turkey. Some stats:

• 30 elected mayors or co-mayors, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have been removed from office since the March 31, 2024 vote.

• 13 state-appointed trustees currently run municipalities in Turkey.

• 55 municipalities are run by parties not elected by voters due to party transfers and other changes.

In sum, the will of nearly 9 million voters in Turkey “has been disregarded”, the municipal and local government workers’ union (TÜM-BEL SEN) stated in their detailed analysis of “anti-labor and anti-democracy interventions”.

The figures come two years after the main opposition CHP led the 2024 vote. The party now faces its latest wave of corruption investigations, and CHP chair Özgür Özel is threatening to trigger early elections to safeguard Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.

What’s happening: Yavaş, a popular nationalist and potential CHP presidential candidate, is expected to face a new corruption investigation as soon as this week. That’s what MPs from all parties were discussing in parliament this week and their evidence may be rumors, but they see a clear trend emerging in recent headlines.

1. CHP Uşak Mayor Özkan Yalım was arrested and removed from office Tuesday on bribery charges. Leaked police footage showed the mayor was detained while in a hotel room with a young municipal employee—which led to his suspension from the CHP and drew an apology from party leadership.

2. CHP Bursa Mayor Mustafa Bozbey was detained with 55 associates Tuesday in a corruption investigation on Bozbey’s term as mayor of Nilüfer—which ended in 2019. Bursa is Turkey’s 4th-largest city with about 2.5 million residents, some of whom protested the operation Tuesday night.

3. Ankara is back in the spotlight after 4 Etimesgut municipal workers were detained Monday on charges of “embezzlement” in the CHP-led district of Ankara. This comes as reports point to new evidence Yavaş misused public funds for concerts, fueling concerns of a looming operation on the Ankara municipality.

For those keeping score, this all comes as Imamoğlu notched a new investigation and Ankara’s Keçiören district mayor, who was elected under the CHP, is expected to join the AKP.

CHP response: In a presser Tuesday, Özel acknowledged pressure was growing on the opposition party and that western governments “tolerate” the AKP’s strategy of “eliminating its rivals” to maintain stable relations with Ankara amid regional instability.

Statements and reporting since then indicate the CHP may attempt to trigger elections through a coordinated resignation of its own MPs.

In theory, Turkish parliament must call snap elections if 5 percent of seats are vacant (30 MPs). Though again, in practice, MP resignations must be approved by the parliament, where the ruling AKP-MHP block holds the majority vote.

Speaking Wednesday, Pres. Erdoğan characterized Özel’s statements as “reckless” and the party as morally bankrupt before linking it to the nation’s long history with coups.

“Coup plotting is the character, spirit and identity of the CHP. Supporting coups and coup plotters is the CHP’s national sport,” Erdoğan said.

Analysis: Asked why the CHP is facing a new onslaught of investigations, Edgar Şar, co-founder and co-director at the IstanPol Institute, offered two possibilities:

1. The CHP, with its regular rallies and political activities, presents an “effective” opposition challenge that threatens the AKP’s “grip on power,” he said.

2. The new Justice Min. Akın Gürlek has expanded his previous work as Chief Public Prosecutor of Istanbul—where he initiated proceedings against Imamoğlu—and Gürlek is now targeting opposition figures nationwide, he added.

Moving forward, Şar suggested the CHP would need to be “much more creative” because “any popular objection” to the status quo is getting criminalized by the state.

“Many people really feel like they have no exits. They think that they are left with nothing to effectively object to what’s going on,” Şar told Turkey recap.

Speaking on the prospects of a snap election, he said: “The earlier the elections, the better for [the CHP].”

Though Şar underlined public opinion is difficult to measure, adding he believed that high polarization has “frozen” voter shares along party lines. And that was before the high uncertainty brought by the war in Iran.

“The more polarized the political atmosphere becomes, the more tolerant AKP voters will become towards the economic hardship and everything that’s going on,” Şar said.

“So, when you also take the Iran war into consideration—where I think it’s fair to expect a certain amount of the ‘rally around the flag’ effect—I think we will not see a very big margin in favor of CHP anytime soon in the polls.”

Done four: Ankara works to mitigate Iran conflict

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In this week’s recap:

• Turkey-Israel rivalry heats up again

• Migration and mediation top Ankara’s war response

• New messaging on the PKK peace talks

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Fat cats find a home in Turkish parliament

Also from us this week:

• Diego Cupolo and Emily Rice Johnson answered reader mail on Recap radio

The good news is that regional warfare mostly excluded Turkey this week—apart from a drone strike on a Turkish tanker in the Black Sea this morning and a stray naval drone washing up in Ordu Saturday.

The bad news is that Turkey remains highly exposed to regional instability as a growing rhetorical spat with Israel deepens anxieties.

As recap readers know, Israel-Turkey relations relapsed after Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. In more recent weeks, leaders in both countries have exchanged threats, giving rise to phrases like “Turkey is the next Iran,” which it’s not, as Bobby Ghosh and most other analysts argue.

Still, the words are real even if AI-generated videos aren’t helping the situation.

What happened: Speaking on the first day of Eid al-Fitr Friday, Pres. Erdoğan said: “[May God,] in the name of his glorious name ‘Al-Kahhar’ [The Subduer] utterly destroy Israel.”

He added, “This Zionist Israel, as is known, has massacred hundreds, thousands of people … I have no doubt that it will pay the price for this.”

It’s nothing new for long-time Turkey watchers. Last Eid, Erdoğan shared a similar message and, in April 2024, he called for the utter destruction of “these Zionists, starting with Netanyahu.”

This may help explain Israel PM Netanyahu’s recent remarks about creating a “hexagon of alliances” to counter the “emerging radical Sunni axis,” which is understood to include Turkey. But the story goes back further and could extend much longer into the future.

Analysis: The Israeli sense that Erdoğan is “implacably anti-Israel” goes back to 2009, the year of the “one-minute” spat at Davos, explained Howard Eissenstat, Laurentian associate professor at St. Lawrence University.

Eissenstat, who published a new analysis on the Turkey-Israel rivalry, told Turkey recap that messaging on both sides is mostly for “domestic consumption” but underlined “the stories we tell ourselves matter.”

“In this case, we run the risk that Israeli and Turkish officials are cementing the idea that they are natural rivals in a zero sum game for power in the region,” he said.

“I don’t envision Israel and Turkey intentionally entering armed conflict,” Eissenstat continued. “But in the long term, we have two powers that see themselves as defining the region that have manifestly demonstrated their willingness to project power beyond their borders.”

He added that if both nations continue to see each other as rivals rather than partners, “then that points to a direction of potential conflict. And it could be indirect, it could be direct. For example, we already see the potential for proxy conflict in places like Syria.”

Regional reper-concussions: Migration and mediation top Ankara war response

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Ask us anything about Turkey and Turkey recap with this form or simply reply to this email. We’ll respond next week.

In this week’s recap:

• Opposition leader targets justice minister

• Turkey joins call on Iran to halt attacks

• Conflict alters peace process, election calendar

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Race horse served as mane course

Also from us this week:

• Yaman Akdeniz details the proposed social media regulations

• Lahib Higel on how the Iran war is reshaping Turkey-Iraq ties

• Tomorrow: Emily Rice Johnson recaps Turkey-Iraq pipeline news

After more than a year of judicial investigations into the CHP, the party’s chair did his own investigation into the justice minister, who then responded with more investigations.

That’s the plot of our lives here in Turkey, broadcast daily on a screen near you under the tentative title: Turnip the heat.

For reference, Turp means turnip or radish in Turkish. And the vegetable is the root of many CHP messages this week, the context of which you can read here.

The assets: In a presser Tuesday, CHP chair Özgür Özel alleged the justice minister acquired and/or sold properties with a total value of 452 million liras or about $10 million—a sum difficult to earn through a civil servant salary, he argued.

“There is an inexplicable accumulation of wealth,” Özel said while reviewing 12 property deeds allegedly held by the minister (available here).

Justice Min. Akın Gürlek quickly denied the claims on X, stating he would file a lawsuit for moral damages. The next day, Gürlek pushed back further, saying he owned four properties, and that as the former chief public prosecutor of Istanbul, he was required to declare his assets regularly.

The same day, reporting by Halk TV Wednesday indicated the public officials who conducted search queries on Gürlek’s properties had been identified and that legal action might be taken against them.

Berk Esen, an associate professor of political science at Sabancı University in Istanbul, said Özel’s allegations were significant, if accurate, and would be used by the opposition party to discredit ongoing investigations into the party.

“This is a strategy on the part of Özel to really hit hard at the government, to show that he still has some fight in him,” Esen told Turkey recap. “What that leads to remains to be seen. I don’t think the government is going to retreat.”

“Such allegations are risky in the sense that they are going to further harden the government to come after the CHP,” he continued. “We’re looking at constant fights between the two sides with no sign of any kind of moderation [ahead].”

The pressure: The news comes as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu marks one year in jail today, on a wide variety of charges detailed by Stüdyo recap. Also the CHP’s presidential candidate, Imamoğlu stood trial in the second week of the Istanbul Municipality case.

Özel led a rally at the city’s main municipality building Wednesday night, though the milestone week for the CHP crackdown was punctuated by the arrest of Kuşadası Mayor Ömer Günel, who was suspended from office on corruption charges Tuesday.

There’s also ongoing investigations in Antalya’s Manavgat district, where 12 of 36 affiliates detained last week were arrested. Speaking of Antalya, it’s worth noting an informant apologized this week for issuing false statements against that municipality.

The takeaway: Esen told Turkey recap the arrest of Imamoğlu and the ongoing targeting of CHP figures represents the “biggest authoritarian escalation that we’ve had from a civilian government since the 1950s.”

Characterizing the jailing of Imamoğlu as an attempted death blow to the opposition’s electoral prospects, Berk noted public opinion polls show mixed views on Imamoğlu’s case.

“Public opinion has not been swayed by any of these developments,” Esen said, referring to new corruption allegations against CHP figures.

“That may not mean much at this point … but in the medium to long term, this is going to be a huge problem [for the government] … and I don’t see how it can change this one year into the case because public opinion usually hardens, and it’s difficult to persuade people who think this is a political trial.”

Don’t withstand so close to me: Turkey joins call on Iran to halt attacks

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In this week’s recap:

• Turkey’s airspace violated again, NATO boosts defenses

• Calculations on Kurdish ground forces

• Istanbul municipality corruption trial underway

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Anti-war Sánchez sparks Turkey-Spain meme flood

Also from us:

• Help us prepare our first Q&A podcast: Submit any question about Turkey or Turkey recap by replying to this email or through this form

• Ezgi Başaran discussed how the Iran war impacts the Turkey-PKK peace talks on Recap radio

“S-400” was trending on social media in Ankara this morning, meaning it’s high time for air defense systems — as South Korea found out this week.

And while it may never be the right time to test the Russian-made missiles that caused a rift between Turkey and its allies, the Iran war has confirmed the Daft Punk maxim: Turkey is NATO after all.

What happened: NATO defense systems were deployed and strengthened in Turkey this week as the Iran war continues and a second missile was intercepted in approach of Turkish airspace Monday.

Some debris landed in Gaziantep without injury or damage, according to Turkey’s Defense Ministry. Falling fragments were also reported in Diyarbakır, also without injury, though with less details.

Like the first incident on March 4, this week’s missile may have targeted assets used by NATO forces in Turkey, namely the Incirlik air base in Adana and the Kürecik radar station in Malatya.

In response, NATO deployed a Patriot missile interceptor system in Malatya, the Turkish Defense Ministry announced Tuesday, following a NATO spox Allison Hart statement on X reading: “NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all Allies against any threat.”

Prior to Monday’s missile incident, the US State Department ordered non-emergency US government employees and their family members to leave the Adana Consulate “out of an abundance of caution.”

Reactions: Turkish FM Fidan, who has worked to deescalate the conflict through diplomatic contacts with Iran, said the airspace violation was “unacceptable” in a phone call with Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi Monday.

For his part, Araghchi denied the missiles directed at Turkey airspace originated from Iran and said he would investigate the issue, according to Anadolu Agency.

Speaking to AKP lawmakers Wednesday, Pres. Erdoğan said Ankara continued efforts to reach diplomatic solutions through contact with Iran, the US and regional nations.

“This war must be stopped before it escalates and completely engulfs the region in flames,” Erdoğan said. “If diplomacy is given a chance, it is quite possible to achieve this.”

Analysis: Gönül Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute, outlined four major concerns for Ankara in her latest analysis of the Iran conflict. Speaking to Turkey recap Wednesday, she said Turkish officials expect the war to “drag on for months” despite US Pres. Trump’s statements suggesting the end is near.

Tol said her sources in Ankara believe the attacks may create a “more belligerent, more militaristic regime” in Iran and that neither the US nor Israel have “achieved their aims in the war.”

The outcome is a “belt of chaos stretching from Syria to Afghanistan,” the sources said, which Tol characterized as a “grave danger and threat if you’re sitting in Ankara.”

Asked how Turkey’s government might be calibrating to fast-paced developments in its neighborhood, Tol responded: “I think they are banking on the prospect that Trump’s and Netanyahu’s goals might diverge.”

She added the mid-term question remains whether Israel can sustain the war without the current level of US involvement, stating there is potential for a protracted, low-intensity conflict across the region.

“All it takes is for Iran or Iranian proxies to just launch a drone or missile to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. So, even a low-intensity conflict is going to be problematic,” Told said.

The Kurdish quest qualm: Calculations on Kurdish ground forces

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