This week marks 100 years since Turkey was born “from the ashes of the Ottoman empire” as the cliché goes, and four years since Turkey recap was born “from the ashes of the news industry” as the click bait grows.
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In the mix this week:
Erdoğan shifts on the Israel-Hamas war
Muted mood ahead of Turkey’s Centennial
Parties mix and match ahead of 2024 election
New influencers on Turkey’s crime log
Sweden’s NATO bid sent to Turkish parliament
CB raises interest rate 5th time in a row
Dip-blow-matic immunity
Also, don’t miss Eray Görgülü’s report on how Turkish drone magnate Selçuk Bayraktar might be preparing to enter politics. For Turkish, click here.
With the Israel-Hamas war ongoing, FM Fidan’s diplomatic traffic is peaking along with MHP head Bahçeli’s intervention plans as Pres. Erdoğan shifted away from an initial mediator role.
Breaking nearly two weeks of silence with a speech Wednesday, Erdoğan claimed Hamas was not a terrorist group, describing it instead as a “liberation group waging a battle to protect its lands and people.”
He then criticized Israel for its “atrocities” and for “acting as an organization and not a state”, before canceling previously scheduled diplomatic trips to Israel that were part of a fragile rapprochement between the two nations. His remarks were rejected by the Israeli foreign and culture ministries, with the latter blaming Erdoğan for supporting terrorism.
Several news outlets this week reported Turkey had asked top Hamas leaders – including political head Ismail Haniyeh – to leave the country, but the reports were later denied by Turkish officials.
Meanwhile, anti-Israel (and US) campaigns have gained ground, such as dumping Coca-Cola and boycotting McDonalds, as indignation over the conflict increasingly dominates government discourse in Turkey. According to CATS associate Sinem Adar, there are several reasons to explain why:
“Ankara’s response to the war in Gaza is shaped by the logic of the AKP’s support to Palestinian cause, which is a combination of democracy promotion, peace mediation, and the ambition to position Turkey as the leader of the ummah,” Adar told Turkey recap.
As Turkish political parties from CHP to HÜDA PAR appear united like no other time against Israel, İYİ Party remains the only one to openly criticize Hamas.
“Spanning from the political actors to ordinary citizens, anti-Westernism is strong within a broad range of political spectrum,” Adar said. “Erdoğan’s response to the conflict is also shaped by a critique of the international system, which has become in the last ten years a talking point of Turkish foreign policy.”
Yet Adar noted “Turkey seems to be a marginal actor in this conflict. Its calls for mediation fall on deaf ears, particularly of Israel and the US. The AKP leadership is anxious about a possible return of the US into the Middle East.”
This all comes at a cost, with Turkish stocks tumbling Wednesday by 7.1 percent, the worst decline recorded since February, following Erdoğan’s shift in rhetoric. The pressure comes in addition to the war’s impacts on global markets, especially on oil prices.
“The possibility of the war expanding will fuel global inflation,” financial markets executive İris Cibre told Turkey recap. “There’s a significant risk for global stagflation, but the impact on fragile economies like Turkey will for sure be harder as it also comes at a time when Turkey is in high demand for foreign currency and has 210B USD worth of short-term external debt.”
Cibre added the consequences might be contained if Erdoğan’s outburst Wednesday is interpreted as a domestic political move. Either way, she predicts negative effects on the Turkish economy.
“Prior to the war there was already a bumpy road ahead for Turkey,” Cibre said. “The new economy program was established assuming a stability in oil prices. A rise [in oil prices] now will cause Turkey’s inflation rate to surpass expectations while putting pressure on the currency.”
– Verda Uyar
Could Yüz A Drink: Muted mood ahead of Turkey’s Centennial
With a few days left till the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Turkish Republic, the main spectacle so far appears to be farmers in Amasya, Yozgat and Kırklareli writing centennial messages in their fields and Tarkan releasing a special song for the occasion.
While the government is promoting the event as the “Century of Türkiye”, with a focus on AKP projects, infrastructure achievements and Erdoğan as a peacemaker, the CHP is organizing concerts and other events with a focus on Atatürk and, well, the Republic.
Government critics, meanwhile, suspect the AKP Palestine rally at Atatürk Airport one day before the official centennial will “overshadow” those celebrations. Historian İlber Ortaylı criticized the indifference he saw in society:
“The Republic is not celebrated like this. No Republic ever celebrated its 100th or 200th year like this. Turks did not show respect for their Republic, did not take ownership,” he told Halk TV.
He added that he thinks CHP is also not aware of its own spirit:
“If they want, they can take me to court. It's possible, parties can change, their spirit can change, their personnel can change, but this should also be said openly," Ortaylı said.
In any case, the loneliest festivities were experienced by this child, who was designated as the period in a 100. yıl formation.
Karışık Kaset: Ankara’nın Bağları mixtape
In other domestic news, HEDEP denied allegations they were in talks with the AKP regarding 2024 elections. HEDEP co-chair Tuncay Bakırhan said the party has not engaged in formal talks with other parties, as HEDEP also criticized the AKP over military agreements with Israel during their first TBMM group meeting.
Yet, prior to the Oct. 1 terror attack in Ankara, Turkey recap heard rumors about a possible HEDEP-AKP alliance, and several local journalists from Diyarbakır had confirmed recent inter-party meetings.
As for the CHP, ahead of its November congress the party remains focused on inner-party politics. Though party head Kılıçdaroğlu this week met with several DEVA officials, and a senior CHP official told DW Türkçe that KK didn’t oppose efforts to bring Muharrem İnce back to the party. Cue that İnce song.
Enercii: New influencers on Turkey’s crime log
Turkey has never been short on grifters. In the 50s and 60s, Sülün Osman was selling Taksim Square to people. Banker Kastelli was the con-man of the 80s, amassing more than 500,000 victims. In the 90s, Selçuk Parsadan managed to trick then-PM Tansu Çiller.
Now Turkish influencer Dilan Polat and her husband have taken the mantle. Polat and her family drew attention after she claimed she sometimes spends more than 750,000 liras a day. People understandably started inquiring about the source of her income and proof of the necessary tax payments for this kind of wealth.
According to the latest info shared by prosecutors, a legal investigation launched against Polat this month is now looking into allegations of tax evasion, money laundering and illegal gambling. A police raid was also conducted on the couple's companies today (Thursday) and we may learn more shortly.
Previously, Polat was just another social media star with an extravagant lifestyle as well as a businesswoman who owned several companies and beauty saloons. Among other things, ongoing investigations have found Polat company purchases totaling 225,743,000 liras were conducted with fake documents.
Not surprisingly, like many other people involved in recent high-profile criminal investigations, Polat had connections with former Interior Min. Süleyman Soylu. After the allegations became widespread, she published a video explaining how she loves her country. And after getting a foreign travel ban and having her assets impounded, she still looks like she’s partying.
If I could turn back Tayyip: Sweden’s NATO bid sent to Turkish parliament
Three regional wars and 17 months after Sweden applied to join NATO, Erdoğan Monday submitted a protocol to Turkey’s parliament to ratify the bid, possibly, maybe, but not yet ending Stockholm’s accession saga.
Turkish parliament is expected to begin discussions on Sweden’s accession next week as US and NATO officials expressed hopes for a speedy approval despite vows not to support the bid by a minor government coalition party.
Still, as analyst Gönül Tol told Al-Monitor, Erdoğan’s remarks on Hamas Wednesday “are likely to erode whatever goodwill his submission of Sweden’s NATO bid to the parliament might have generated.”
If Ankara does approve, the stall will be in Hungary’s court, as Budapest refused to hold a vote Tuesday on Sweden’s bid for ambiguous reasons, which may or may not have led Donald Trump to call Victor Orbán “the leader of Turkey” this week. Too many autocrats, not enough foes.
Artı for artı’s sake: CB raises interest rate 5th time in a row
Turkey’s central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 500 basis points Thursday (today), to 35 percent as forecasts projected. The decision extends a string of rate increases, now totaling 2,650 basis points since CB Gov. Gaye Erkan’s appointment in June.
The lira traded at 28.13 per USD at 1430 local time, as pressure on Turkey’s economy, stocks and currency continued after Erdoğan’s Hamas speech, which could also sabotage Finance Min. Şimşek’s third and ongoing Gulf tour.
The nation’s prolonged economic downturn is hard to sum up, but the equation should include an estimated $4.7B in government payments for build-operate-transfer projects next year. As well as the 2.2 İstanbul citizens that have left the megacity since 2018 due to the rising cost of living. Also, the 61 percent official inflation, meaning the real interest rate is still negative.
Keep in mind, the denominator to all figures is the extra-long working hours required of many Turkish citizens, best summed up in this viral rant on “modern slavery”.
Meanwhile, a top economic concern according to Turkish Reddit is a decision by gaming platform Steam to start charging locals in USD due to high lira volatility. Never stand between young men and their video games.
Dip-blow-matic immunity
Finally, a diplomatic vehicle from an undisclosed “South American country” was caught entering Turkey with 55 kilos of cocaine at the Bulgarian border.
A friend of Turkey recap noted Colombia doesn’t have an embassy in Sofia, and a diplomatic car from a friendly country shouldn’t have been searched at all, meaning Venezuela is out.
That leaves Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador as the suspects. Reply to this email with your guess. Correct answers get free Tr stickers if we ever solve this mystery. In other news:
Fishermen in Giresun caught a bear at sea. We know what you’re thinking, but it was too far from Bulgaria to be a cocaine bear.
Uber now offers hot air balloon rides in Cappadocia, but we actually need that service in İstanbul to avoid traffic and taxi drivers.
A pregnant Turkish chess player was removed from the national team, revealing the sports federation is still in the first trimester of gender-based discrimination.
A Galatasaray fan broke both arms while watching a match and got arm casts to maintain star player Mauro Icardi’s signature pose. (Shout out to Mauro i-Kürdi.)
This report on the rising popularity of pet ferrets takes an unexpected dark turn, linking demand to technology and loneliness.
In contrast, parliament will start using AI to replace stenographers, meaning technology both liberates and traps us, like noise-canceling headphones and the plot line of every sci-fi story ever.
Speed reads
Turkey pushes $25bn Iraq transport route over India-Europe corridor (Nikkei)
France sends weapons to Armenia amid fears of new conflict with Azerbaijan (Politico)
Azerbaijan drops Armenian land corridor plan, looks to Iran - Aliyev adviser (Reuters)
Bulgaria-Turkey LNG supply pact probed by EU antitrust watchdog (Bloomberg)
Verdict reached in the case of child abuse in Hiranur Foundation (Bianet)
Turkish top court: Rights of jailed new parliamentary deputy Atalay violated (Reuters)
Turkish ministry allows kidnapped girl to return to ISIS family (GN)
Olive Oil Producers in Turkey Decry Export Freeze (Olive Oil Times)
Weekend reads
Worst of Friends, Best of Rivals: Agency vs Structure in Turkey- Russia Relations
Scholar Dimitar Bechev examines the unprecedented rapprochement between Turkey and Russia, concluding: “With or without Erdoğan, Turkey is not an ally of Russia but rather an aspiring power with links to both the West and Moscow.” (Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi)
A rocky outlook for Turkey-US unhappy marriage
Predicting “no improvement” for Turkey-US relations in the short-to-medium term, analyst Howard Eissenstat argues “the gap between the United States and Turkey on [the Israel-Hamas war] is immense” and represents the “greatest immediate threat” to bilateral ties. (MEI)
King of the Dammed
Journalist Hannah Lucinda Smith reports many of Turkey’s new dams malfunction “only a few years after being completed” while “the companies that built them continue to reap huge profits in spite of their failures, wreaking catastrophic damage on the environment, destroying livelihoods, and exacerbating Turkey’s water crisis in the process.” (FP)
Turkey at 100
After a short overview of Turkey’s first 100 years, analysts Marc Pierini and Francesco Siccardi look ahead, writing: “Ultimately, Turkey at 100 faces the challenge of making its domestic and foreign ambitions compatible with its structural economic constraints and its massive rule-of-law deficiencies.” (Carnegie)
** Listen to the Turkey Book Talk podcast for deep dives with authors and researchers on Turkish politics, culture and history. New episodes biweekly. Subscribe here **
Week ahead
Oct 27 The İstanbul Policy Center hosts an in-person launch event for the book "A Companion to Modern Turkey's Centennial" at 1600 TRT
Oct 28 Erdoğan and Bahçeli attend a "Big Palestine Rally" at İstanbul’s Atatürk Airport
Oct 29 100th commemoration of the Republic of Turkey
Oct 31 Trial of journalist Sezgin Kartal resumes in İstanbul
Nov 1 Trial of various journalists linked to the Özgürlükçü Demokrasi newspaper resumes in İstanbul
Nov 2 Central Bank releases quarterly inflation report
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Diego Cupolo, Editor-in-chief @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, Editor-at-large @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, Managing editor @deingrid
Verda Uyar, Digital growth manager @verdauyar
Sema Beşevli, Editorial intern @ssemab_
Onur Hasip, Editorial intern @onurhasip