Finally, it’s happened to Swedes. Oh oh oh, the Swedish thing. How Swede it is to be approved by you.
Turkey voted Sweden in, and our leftover puns are out. All parties involved breathed a sigh of release. In this issue:
Turkish parliament approves Sweden bid
İstanbul’s municipal race gets tougher
Scrutiny on Turkish exports to Israel
CB head Erkan accused of nepotism
The pearls of medical tourism
And thanks to our generous subscribers, we continue to expand our own news coverage. This week with:
Volkan Kahyalar on İstanbul’s unaffordable rents
Diego Cupolo and Sema Beşevli on Turkey’s banned pesticide problem
And Eray Görgülü on İYİ Party’s election strategy
Sweden’s NATO accession process – which involved Quran burnings, Russian meddling, two Stockholm governments, and was publicly delayed due to Turkish security threats, but privately aimed at lifting arms embargoes and streamlining weapons transfers – is almost over.
By a 287-to-55 vote, Turkish parliament Tuesday voted to approve the NATO protocol. Ratification comes into effect after the measure is published in the Official Gazette, expected within 15 days of the vote.
Technically, Pres. Erdoğan could further delay the process by withholding approval but is unlikely to do so since he introduced the legislation and his AKP voted for it. The remaining steps require Erdoğan’s final signature, its hidden cartoon figure, and Hungary’s approval.
Paul T. Levin, director of the Stockholm Uni. Institute for Turkish Studies, said Turkish approval with Hungary’s holdout vote recalled the Swedish saying, ‘Smolk i glädjebägaren’, best interpreted to mean: “Dirt in the champagne glass.”
It might be too early to pop the corks in Stockholm, but Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, Ankara director for the German Marshall Fund, sees it differently, telling Turkey recap Erdogan and Orbán may synchronize their approvals
“He might actually give Orbán a few weeks to act and not be the last to ratify,” Ünlühisarcıklı said. “So, he may still coordinate this with Orbán.”
It’s not over till it’s over. But when it is, we’ll consider Turkey and Hungary to be Sweden’s in-laws in the NATO family, as the trio will be bound by agreements that could cause future discord.
Recalling Sweden’s bumpy road to Turkish approval, Levin said the process has “unfortunately” damaged Turkey’s image in Sweden “in the long run".
“The reverse is true, too,” Levin added. “I think many Turks did not know much about Sweden, but after a year and a half of Turkish media projecting images of Sweden as a safe base for terrorism … I think you also have a more negative perception of Sweden in Turkey.”
Throughout, most observers have assessed Sweden’s bid to be more linked to Turkey-US relations than anything Stockholm ever did. Reuters published a handy report on what Ankara gained from stalling the process, but now that it’s nearly done, Ünlühisarcıklı expects more positive news.
“In my opinion, there will soon be concrete developments regarding Turkey's F-16 acquisition from the United States, and Erdoğan might get an invitation to the White House,” he told Turkey recap.
“I think that Turkey and the United States should also use this momentum to address the S-400 crisis and the related CAATSA sanctions on Turkey,” Ünlühisarcıklı continued, referring to Ankara’s 2019 Russian-missile acquisition that suspended Turkey from the F-35 program.
“That could be the main highlight of Erdoğan’s visit to Washington, if it takes place.”
US state department officials welcomed Turkish parliament’s vote this week, but reiterated weapons transfers remain tied to Congressional procedures.
Ünlühisarcıklı added some progress can be expected in Turkey-EU relations, noting ties will remain transactional, and not strategic, adding “It’s still tit-for-tat”.
Moving forward, that tit-for-tat will likely involve Russia and a continuation of Turkey’s balancing act in the Ukraine war. The day Ankara voted on Sweden, the Kremlin said Putin was prepping for a Turkey visit. Maybe it was classic trolling, like this Russian media report indicating Turkish banks started processing payments from Russia last week after a brief pause.
But our sources say the latter is partially true. Russian payments are “still stuck but slowly working” we were told, and little remains certain for the road ahead … kind of like your average day in the Swedish accession saga.
– Diego Cupolo
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