And The Heat Goes On

Issue #254

Demonstrations and crackdowns continue in Turkey, both in elaborate ways. From protest-themed fashion shows to rap songs, there’s a lot of movement. We’re just not sure in which direction.

Announcement: To dig deeper into recent tumult, we’ll host a live webcast with Michael Sercan Daventry, the journalist and creator of the James in Turkey website on Turkish politics.

Join us at this link on Tuesday, April 22, at 0900 EST / 1300 UTC / 1600 TRT.

In this week’s recap:

• New arrests, more trials for CHP

• Heart attack pauses DEM talks

• Turkey-Israel talk Syria, US to cut forces

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Sports teams take on C-sections

Also from us this week:

• Çınar Özer on the alleged use of police violence and unwarranted strip searches on protesters in custody

• And sign up separately for our Turkish-language parliament monitoring newsletter: Meclis recap

CHP rally Wednesday in Beylikdüzü, İstanbul. Source

More than 100 student protesters were released from jail last week. Depending on how you interpret Bahçeli’s call for speedy İmamoğlu court proceedings, that might be the last bit of positive news for the opposition in this segment.

This morning: CHP Beşiktaş deputy mayor Ali Rıza Yılmaz was detained with 12 municipality employees on bid-rigging charges. This follows the arrest of Beşiktaş mayor Rıza Akpolat in January on similar allegations.

The news mirrors what happened in İstanbul’s CHP-run Beykoz district, where deputy mayor Fidan Gül was arrested Tuesday on corruption charges after the March arrest of Beykoz mayor Alaattin Köseler.

As part of the overarching İstanbul municipality investigation, state-appointed trustees also took over 24 companies Friday, including construction firms owned by İmamoğlu.

Trend lines: Many are wondering (and asking us) if there is an organized operation against CHP. Well, one bold commentator Wednesday said the party would get a trustee today, sparking online rumors that were refuted by İletişim, and resulted in a criminal investigation against that commentator.

Forecasts are perilous, but – if accurate – recent polls and surveys suggest widespread support for İmamoğlu. The question is whether the CHP can convert that support into an effective response against the onslaught of investigations.

Burak Bilgehan Özpek, a professor of political science at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara, said İmamoğlu’s arrest has strengthened Özel’s capacity to mount an opposition movement. (Apart from rallies, Özel is also doing media rounds to spread his message.)

At the same time, Özpek said Erdoğan faces challenges from negative market reactions to İmamoğlu’s jailing as well as potentially negative reactions from coalition partners.

“I think Bahçeli … didn't know that İmamoğlu was going to be detained,” Özpek told Turkey recap. “And you know MHP initiated a process with the Kurdish party, which means that DEM Party will gain legitimacy.”

“This aims to strengthen the power of the parliament against the presidential palace. So, I think both the DEM Party and MHP are afraid of a potential, upcoming dark autocracy, and this might create friction in the pact that is led by Erdoğan,” he added.

Next: Court officials rejected a release appeal for İmamoğlu, whose trials continue after hearings last Friday. His next court dates are Jun. 16 and Jul. 11, while the “money counting” trial will resume Nov. 17.

Meanwhile, Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office announced Tuesday it would begin taking statements from 86 people, including İmamoğlu, as part of the ongoing investigation into the CHP’s 2023 Congress.

Sırrı Süreyya Önder and Pervin Buldan met Erdoğan last week. © DEM

Peace process: Heart attack pauses DEM talks