We want to congratulate Turkey’s national team for making the World Cup after a 24-year absence, but where are the celebrations?
No party like it’s 2002? You know those were different times.
In this week’s recap:
CHP weighs options after detention wave
Ankara works to mitigate Iran conflict
MHP resignation spotlights power struggle
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Izmir serves olive oil on tap (bring your own bread)
Also from us this week:
Sinan Ülgen outlined how Ankara views the Iran war on Recap radio
Our April editions of This day in Turkey and the Events calendar are now available for News Tracking Tools subscribers
In theory, people vote for political representation. In practice, one in five votes has been misrepresented since the 2024 municipal elections in Turkey. Some stats:
30 elected mayors or co-mayors, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have been removed from office since the March 31, 2024 vote.
13 state-appointed trustees currently run municipalities in Turkey.
55 municipalities are run by parties not elected by voters due to party transfers and other changes.
In sum, the will of nearly 9 million voters in Turkey “has been disregarded”, the municipal and local government workers’ union (TÜM-BEL SEN) stated in their detailed analysis of “anti-labor and anti-democracy interventions”.
The figures come two years after the main opposition CHP led the 2024 vote. The party now faces its latest wave of corruption investigations, and CHP chair Özgür Özel is threatening to trigger early elections to safeguard Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.
What’s happening: Yavaş, a popular nationalist and potential CHP presidential candidate, is expected to face a new corruption investigation as soon as this week. That’s what MPs from all parties were discussing in parliament this week and their evidence may be rumors, but they see a clear trend emerging in recent headlines.
CHP Uşak Mayor Özkan Yalım was arrested and removed from office Tuesday on bribery charges. Leaked police footage showed the mayor was detained while in a hotel room with a young municipal employee—which led to his suspension from the CHP and drew an apology from party leadership.
CHP Bursa Mayor Mustafa Bozbey was detained with 55 associates Tuesday in a corruption investigation on Bozbey’s term as mayor of Nilüfer—which ended in 2019. Bursa is Turkey’s 4th-largest city with about 2.5 million residents, some of whom protested the operation Tuesday night.
Ankara is back in the spotlight after 4 Etimesgut municipal workers were detained Monday on charges of “embezzlement” in the CHP-led district of Ankara. This comes as reports point to new evidence Yavaş misused public funds for concerts, fueling concerns of a looming operation on the Ankara municipality.
For those keeping score, this all comes as Imamoğlu notched a new investigation and Ankara’s Keçiören district mayor, who was elected under the CHP, is expected to join the AKP.
CHP response: In a presser Tuesday, Özel acknowledged pressure was growing on the opposition party and that western governments “tolerate” the AKP’s strategy of “eliminating its rivals” to maintain stable relations with Ankara amid regional instability.
Statements and reporting since then indicate the CHP may attempt to trigger elections through a coordinated resignation of its own MPs.
In theory, Turkish parliament must call snap elections if 5 percent of seats are vacant (30 MPs). Though again, in practice, MP resignations must be approved by the parliament, where the ruling AKP-MHP block holds the majority vote.
Speaking Wednesday, Pres. Erdoğan characterized Özel’s statements as “reckless” and the party as morally bankrupt before linking it to the nation’s long history with coups.
“Coup plotting is the character, spirit and identity of the CHP. Supporting coups and coup plotters is the CHP’s national sport,” Erdoğan said.
Analysis: Asked why the CHP is facing a new onslaught of investigations, Edgar Şar, co-founder and co-director at the IstanPol Institute, offered two possibilities:
The CHP, with its regular rallies and political activities, presents an “effective” opposition challenge that threatens the AKP’s “grip on power,” he said.
The new Justice Min. Akın Gürlek has expanded his previous work as Chief Public Prosecutor of Istanbul—where he initiated proceedings against Imamoğlu—and Gürlek is now targeting opposition figures nationwide, he added.
Moving forward, Şar suggested the CHP would need to be “much more creative” because “any popular objection” to the status quo is getting criminalized by the state.
“Many people really feel like they have no exits. They think that they are left with nothing to effectively object to what’s going on,” Şar told Turkey recap.
Speaking on the prospects of a snap election, he said: “The earlier the elections, the better for [the CHP].”
Though Şar underlined public opinion is difficult to measure, adding he believed that high polarization has “frozen” voter shares along party lines. And that was before the high uncertainty brought by the war in Iran.
“The more polarized the political atmosphere becomes, the more tolerant AKP voters will become towards the economic hardship and everything that’s going on,” Şar said.
“So, when you also take the Iran war into consideration—where I think it’s fair to expect a certain amount of the ‘rally around the flag’ effect—I think we will not see a very big margin in favor of CHP anytime soon in the polls.”
Done four: Ankara works to mitigate Iran conflict
