Disarmageddon

Issue #266

Question: If humans restore the God heads on Mount Nemrut, are they tampering with the Gods or pampering them?

In this week’s recap:

• PKK awaits reciprocity in peace process

• Imamoğlu gets first conviction

• More instability hits Syria and Iraq

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• YouTuber triggers Disinformation Bulletin

Also from us this week:

• Nimet Kıraç on how Hatay’s women find solace in local beauty parlors

• Lisel Hintz on the intersection of media and politics on Recap radio

• Meclis recap on the law proposal seeking to open olive groves to mining

Tuesday: We host a live webcast on Armenia, Turkey and the Zangezur corridor with independent researcher Nareg Seferian. Join us here July 22 at 1300 UTC.

There’s still an Öcalan way to go. © Rudaw

It feels like end times. Or maybe ‘new beginning’ times depending on your politics and affinity for 90s one-hit wonders.

By now, you know 30 PKK militants burned their weapons in a symbolic ceremony Friday in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.

The move signifies the start of the PKK’s disarmament process “with the aim of securing more democratic gains,” according to a statement shared Friday by the new Group for Peace and Democratic Society, one of the militia’s many political reformulations to come.

The next steps remain anyone’s guess, and the Turkey-PKK peace process remains highly exposed to regional instability in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere (covered below). Meanwhile inside Turkey, public trust levels in the process are unlikely to shift without more clarity on the road ahead.

“Public perceptions regarding the process after the weapons burning ceremony won't change overnight, but they carry the potential to change from now on,” Reha Ruhavioğlu, director of the Diyarbakır-based Kurdish Studies Center, told Turkey recap.

A recent survey by IstanPol and Rawest Research (now in English) found about 80 percent of Kurdish respondents and 60 percent of Turkish respondents supported the process. Ruhavioğlu said Kurdish support has likely reached its peak, but he believed Turkish support could increase with the full disarmament and disbandment of the PKK.

Still, many questions remain on how to get from point A to point B, as noted by Yaşar Aydın, a researcher at SWP’s Centre for Applied Turkish Studies (CATS), in his latest commentary:

“The process follows no discernible strategy. It is neither internationally monitored, nor accompanied by reintegration programs or legal guarantees,” he wrote.

Next steps: A PKK spokesperson said further disarmament required reciprocal steps from Ankara to lay the legal and political grounds for the process to move forward.

This could include a parliamentary commission, expected to be established this week to oversee the process. Ruhavioğlu said it might also involve the release of prominent Kurdish political prisoners, like former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş.

On that note, DEM Party’s delegation was expected to visit Demirtaş today after meetings with the justice minister and MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli. Likewise, prison reforms remain a high priority for the pro-Kurdish party.

DEM, itself, could also see reforms after Öcalan requested yet another name change for the party recently known as Yeşil Sol. DEM MP Cengiz Çandar said the party may hold a congress next fall to implement the coming reforms.

Outlook: Meanwhile, media and online discourse centered on DEM’s potential inclusion with the AKP-MHP ruling alliance, which DEM co-chair Tülay Hatimoğulları denied on Halk TV Monday.

The narrative has been present throughout the peace process, but got a new jolt with Pres. Erdoğan’s speech Saturday, when he said the AKP, MHP and DEM “have decided to walk this path together.”

Like First Lady Emine Erdoğan’s tears after that speech, all aspects of this process remain highly divisive. It’s a historic achievement for some and a betrayal for others with news headlines of apparent assaults on Kurdish cultural expression throughout.

While the peace process remains fragile and prone to disruptive events, Ruhavioğlu maintains the actors involved have more to gain from building on the steps they’ve already achieved.

“Continuing this process is the most profitable investment for everyone today. Disrupting it will not bring more benefits,” Ruhavioğlu told Turkey recap.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu in court Wednesday. Source

Add insult to injustice: Imamoğlu gets first conviction