Do You Kemal Here Often?

Issue #261

Baklavye anyone? How about a frontline report from the Conquest of Constantinople? Post-truth never looked so good.

Announcement: We’ll be off next week for Kurban Bayramı. Parliament is taking a holiday, and inshallah the news will, too. If something big happens, we’ll be back to recap it. Otherwise, see you the week of June 16!

In this week’s recap:

• Trials shift discourse to Kılıçdaroğlu

• CHP faces internal Cold War

• Peace process in slow lane

• US scaling down bases in Syria

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Erdoğan fights fire with ire

Also from us this week:

• Catch up on Syria news with Alexander McKeever on our podcast, Recap radio

• Historian-in-chief Emily Rice Johnson dropped a timeline on Palestine-Turkey ties

• Tomorrow: Emily returns to serve up the latest inflation news in Economy recap

Former CHP chair Kılıçdaroğlu votes in the May 14, 2023 election. Source

We need to talk about Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

He’s not so popular after losing many elections in his 13-year tenure as CHP head, but his return is once again a possibility, sparking power plays and deepening divisions within Turkey’s main opposition party (details below) as it continues to face an onslaught of detentions.

Kılıçdaroğlu is in the news because the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office is investigating alleged corruption in the November 2023 CHP Congress, which led to the appointment of his successor and current party chair Özgür Özel.

To put it simply, prosecutors accuse CHP members and delegates of receiving illegal benefits for supporting Özel’s bid. The indictment also seeks prison sentences for 12 people, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Izmir Mayor Cemil Tugay.

That said, the upcoming June 30 trial could potentially “nullify” the 2023 Congress and Özel’s win, forcing Kılıçdaroğlu back into the CHP chairmanship, though everything is a bit murky at the moment. Possible scenarios include:

1. Kılıçdaroğlu declines the role, risking a state trustee appointment to the party

2. Kılıçdaroğlu takes over and calls another Congress, which might take a year

3. The CHP creates an escape hatch through a back-up or reserve party

4. Everything remains the same as we obsess over hypotheticals

For his part, Kılıçdaroğlu has remained mostly silent except for this X post, in which he said silence is “responsibility”. DW reports he and his team are preparing to retake the party chairmanship to protect the party from a worse outcome.

“Kılıçdaroğlu is the only person that can end the speculation, and right now he is not saying anything,” a CHP source told Turkey recap.

“We know he feels mistreated and wants revenge, but we can’t understand who is the subject of that revenge,” the source said.

A line from Kılıçdaroğlu’s X post further muddies the water. He wrote: “We are capable of drowning the enemies of this party within the sanctity of this very party."

Then Tuesday, Özel commented on developments, stating: "We will neither leave Atatürk's party to a trustee nor hand it over to anyone through judicial games.”

Putting party infighting aside, Seda Demiralp, professor and dean of the Faculty of Administrative, Economic and Social sciences at Işık University in Istanbul, said the Congress trial and prospects for Kılıçdaroğlu's return do not pose “a divisive threat” at the voter level.

“CHP voters have not been this unified for a long time and possible divisions, rivalry or conflict between Kılıçdaroğlu and his circle and the new management has a relatively low divisive impact on CHP voters,” Demiralp told Turkey recap.

“Even former divisions between Imamoğlu and Yavaş supporters seem to have disappeared as … voters began to see little difference between the two names in the post March 19 atmosphere,” she added, referring to the date of Imamoğlu’s arrest.

CHP chair Özel held a rally in Gaziosmanpaşa, Istanbul, Wednesday. © CHP

Mutually Assured Distraction: CHP faces internal Cold War

Party insiders expect the CHP Congress trial to continue for months, if not more. They said this could serve to extend uncertainty over CHP leadership, potentially undermining Özel’s mandate and deepening rifts within the party.