Elections are over and a “Van minute” interruption has passed, though not before historian Nicholas Danforth put competitive authoritarianism on the map.
We always appreciate visual aids. If you prefer audio aids, Azra Ceylan will soon drop an election wrap on our podcast. Text aids below.
Note to our readers: We’ll be on break next week for Ramazan Bayramı (Eid al-Fitr). Best wishes to all who celebrate and we’ll be back soon!
In this week’s recap:
Turkish democracy in the spotlight
Election irregularities in the southeast
Erdoğan to visit Washington
Markets react positively to results
TRT World falls for click-Tate
And in our original reports:
Diego Cupolo on how inflation hit voters and then the AKP
Yeşim Karaağar and Gonca Tokyol on the brief but tense democracy crisis in Van
Who needs TikTok when you have Turkish politics? No scrolling required for an endless stream of euphoria, anxiety and absurdity.
Sunday’s local elections delivered a setback for Pres. Erdoğan and the AKP after sweeping victories in the May 2023 general elections made both seem unbeatable considering the multi-year economic crisis, Feb. 6 earthquake response and other traditional forms of kryptonite for elected figures.
“The election outcomes have decisively eroded the myth of Erdoğan's invincibility, demonstrating that his usual tactics for securing election victory are increasingly ineffective,” said Ayça Alemdaroğlu, associate director of Stanford University’s program on Turkey at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.
“This shift suggests a weakening of the power coalition that has supported him since 2015, potentially prompting him to seek new alliances,” she told Turkey recap.
For the first time, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) drew more votes than the AKP, breaking its ‘25 percent’ ceiling and reaching highs not seen since 1977.
The sweep came as many AKP voters apparently abstained from the vote and the New Welfare Party (YRP) offered a protest vote for those upset with the status quo – best read as ‘savings low’ considering the cost of living crisis.
Following the vote, Erdoğan, communications chief Fahrettin Altun and the Council of Europe Congress aligned like planets to say elections went smoothly, with some problems, and represented a “strong commitment” to Turkish democracy. Though no one mentioned iftar dinners would be cancelled.
Still, the outcome put more women in elected positions, the CHP in charge of Adıyaman and İstanbul’s city council for the first time in decades, and put the Güç Birliği Partisi in the history books for Turkey’s worst election performance ever with just three votes.
Most notably, incumbent İstanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu beat AKP challenger Murat Kurum, making him a likely presidential candidate in the future. For opposition voters, İmamoğlu might look like the knight at the end of the tunnel of AKP rule.
But local elections do not equal, negate or forecast general elections – as the difference between 2019 and 2023 results showed. The stakes and dynamics are different. The gap between now and the next vote is wide and full of uncertainty.
With its fresh momentum, the CHP is at a “critical juncture”, Alemdaroğlu said, which requires pushing back on further repressive measures.
Alemdaroğlu said the CHP must seize “this pivotal moment not only to govern effectively but also to facilitate a bottom-up rebuilding of Turkish democracy, emphasizing equitable economic distribution and political democratization.”
She added, “Municipal governments, as critical centers of power, offer unique opportunities for this, and the opposition mayors are now in a crucial position to steer this effort locally.”
The challenge now is whether the CHP can lead democratization efforts and become more inclusive for Turkey’s diverse citizens, two objectives its former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu advanced before the 2023 election defeat marked his record.
Leaders guide popular sentiments, while populists follow and exploit them. In his early years, Erdoğan pushed for more inclusivity, especially for the nation’s conservative majority. With a new mandate in hand, İmamoğlu has a chance to take the next step in advancing the democratic process.
According to Osman Sert, research director at PanoramaTR, İmamoğlu already marked the path when he responded to a CHP candidate’s anti-Kurdish remarks by saying she should “either find another job or find another party.”
“That was a very strong, swift, bold reaction,” Sert told Turkey recap. “He is becoming a leader.”
The question, as always, is what comes next? Especially considering İmamoğlu has a trial date later this month.
– Diego Cupolo
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