In Yellowstone National Park, stay away from the bison. In Muğla Bull Wrestling ceremonies, stay away from the bulls. Yes, bull wrestling.
In this week’s recap:
Ankara lays low on Iran-Israel war
CHP in turmoil ahead of trial
Peace process updates
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Lenin statue reappears in Düzce
Also from us this week:
Aaron Stein talks F-35s, US-Turkey ties and the Iran-Israel war on Recap radio
Ingrid Woudwijk on Istanbul’s Syrian food scene after Assad
News tracking tools: Emily Rice Johnson’s new timeline on Russia-Turkey relations
Next week: Gallia Lindenstrauss, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, joins our podcast Tuesday to discuss Israel-Turkey ties.
The US bombed Iran this weekend, prompting a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel war and reviving the late US Sen. John McCain’s 2007 Beach Boys parody.
You know the rest. Missiles over Doha, potential for blowback and, as usual, Turkey sits in the middle of it all – though not just on the map this time.
In its “muted” response to recent events, Ankara has so far held back the usual criticisms of foreign intervention in the region, as analyst Soner Çağaptay pointed out in this MFA statement.
The reasons are likely varied, but when it comes to power balances, Iran’s losses can become Turkey’s gains in competitive arenas like Syria, the Caucasus and “maybe even Iraq,” said Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.
“I think Turkey will remain rhetorically supportive of Iran, as it has been during this confrontation,” said Makovsky, who previously worked for the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs and US State Department.
“But privately, I have to believe that Turks are rejoicing over the weakening of Iran,” he added.
Turkey-Iran ties are complex and often get less media attention than other regional dynamics, but in recent decades, the two nations have generally tried to maintain a “modus vivendi” despite competing interests, Makovsky said.
There are also some areas of cooperation, as highlighted by the Reza Zarrab case and the Lethal Dissent podcast series.
“These are two countries of roughly equal size with serious militaries … and they have generally avoided conflict,” Makovsky told Turkey recap.
On the economic front, Turkey may benefit as one of Iran’s neighboring trade partners, like it did during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when Ankara’s neutrality “facilitated a barter agreement that swapped Turkish oil imports for manufactured exports to Iran,” wrote analyst Kemal Kirişci, in this 2019 commentary.
For reference, the Iran-Iraq war coincided with Ankara’s shift to an export-oriented development strategy, boosting Turkey’s standing as a trade and energy transit hub. Though the conflict also created opportunities for Kurdish militants (covered below).
That said, like the relief from falling oil prices this week, declining tensions between Iran and Israel are welcome news in Turkey, where Iranians who fled the fighting are now contemplating their next steps.
What happens next is anyone’s guess, though the past few days were business as usual in Ankara: Erdoğan tried to host peace talks, Bahçeli underlined threats to national security and the Communication Directorate refuted claims Turkish airspace was used in Operation Midnight Hammer.
Won’t budge an Ince: CHP in turmoil ahead of trial
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