Hop On The Samarkand Wagon
Issue #134
After the Samarkand summit, Erdoğan’s apparently going straight to New York for the UN General Assembly. That’s at least a 20-hour flight, which is almost exactly the length of the entire Harry Potter movie series (19.65 hours).
To the advisors reading this, we promise: once he starts, he won’t quit-itch.
Oh, and we’re taking bets on his New York agenda. Our wager: Definite stop at the Turkish House, but a pass on the Magnolia bakery because we have one in İstanbul now (still not worth the line).
Hit reply and send us your wagers on Erdoğan’s NYC tour plan.
School’s canceled, roads are empty and Samarkand airport is closed for two days as Uzbekistan’s silk road tourism hub shuts down to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.
Today, marks Pres. Erdoğan’s first appearance at the group’s summit, where Turkey is a “dialogue partner.” Most eyes, however, will be fixed on Friday’s meeting between Erdoğan and Pres. Putin, as the two leaders will discuss the Black Sea grain deal, and also the Turkish leader’s meeting with China’s Pres. Xi Jinping.
Putin last week criticized the food corridor agreement, arguing most exports went to high-income countries, with added complaints from Moscow that the deal did not sufficiently increase Russian agricultural exports. Erdoğan Thursday repeated Putin’s talking points.
“We want grain shipments from Russia to start as well,” Erdoğan said. “There is a delay here.” The comments might be read as what Al-Monitor calls Ankara’s “pro-Russian tilt,” which got an extra nudge when Erdoğan suggested Friday he may turn to Russia (or the UK and France) for fighter jets if the US doesn’t deliver on the stalled F-16 deal.
Another reading might suggest Erdoğan is buttering up Putin ahead of the summit to get something in return. Wolf Piccoli, co-president of the consulting firm Teneo, argues Erdoğan’s main goal is to secure a gas price discount from Russia, noting economic perks have been a key factor keeping Turkey from joining war-related sanctions. (The EU and US are increasingly concerned Turkish banks could be used to evade sanctions, the FT reported today).
In a note to clients, Piccoli wrote both “a shortage of gas or a steep rise in the cost of heating voters’ homes” could further erode Erdoğan’s popular support, adding the Turkish leader is “expected to ask for a price reduction and deferred payments in return for continuing to ease Russia’s international isolation.”
Meanwhile in Ukraine, Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar received the Ukrainian Order of Merit from Pres. Zelenskyy, who also announced Baykar will build a drone factory in Ukraine. Question: Do we need peace before we can start publishing books on our mediation efforts? Turkey’s Communications Directorate says nope.
– Ingrid Woudwijk
Mavi jinx
The notorious Mavi Marmara vessel is back in the news, though with a new name – the Anatolian – after the Turkish coast guard claimed the boat came under fire from Greek coast guard ships near the island of Bozcaada last weekend. Details remain murky, as they often do with offshore events, but the incident adds some very much not needed weight on the scale measuring Turkey-Greece strains.
We’ll spare you the many official statements that followed because you’ve heard them before, but Greek PM Mitsotakis said Sunday he’s “always open to meeting Erdoğan,” which might be hard after Erdoğan’s “you don’t exist to me” moment this spring.
More noteworthy is how the overall spat is seen by the general public, with the majority of respondents in a recent Metropoll survey saying Turkey-Greek tensions are part of an election ploy. CHP chief Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu tried to fan those inclinations Sunday, tweeting: "Mitsotakis and Erdoğan have something in common: both of their votes are declining. As it stands, two populists play war cards.”
But despite the war of words (and now one alleged shooting), the Turkish and Greek navies took part in a 13-nation NATO exercise this week, parking their warships at the same port, as in the photo above, and probably eating the same food, only jokingly arguing about who made it first. (Phoenicians obviously.)
Chaos-casus reigns
In other foreign policy news, more than 100 soldiers from Armenia and 50 soldiers from Azerbaijan were killed in renewed fighting this week. Both sides accuse each other of provocations, though Azerbaijan forces have attacked military positions inside Armenian territory, and artillery fire is not limited to disputed areas.
As in the 2020 war, Ankara has firmly sided with Azerbaijan, as Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu tweeted Tuesday: “Armenia should cease its provocations and focus on peace negotiations.” Yerevan and Baku reportedly negotiated a ceasefire late Wednesday.
Read this Washington Post explainer for more context.
C(l)ashing out
New regulations on corporate lending are raising costs for banks, which are now cutting down on credits, Reuters reported. The rules pave the way for cheaper credit to small and mid-sized borrowers in theory, but business owners are reportedly struggling to access the much-needed credit as banks are left with confusion and concerns.
Foreign reserves are boosting the Robin Hood way, in addition to the central bank’s reported 75 billion USD worth of intervention so far this year, as central bank announced earlier this week that “mystery” capital flows have reached record highs in the month of July. The 5.5 billion USD worth cash of unknown origin is said to be coming from cash savings transferred to banking systems that will likely help Turkey finance its current-account gap, which has also been rising steadily since the start of the year.
Meanwhile, Turkish citizens with a preference for cash on hand took over TikTok this week as some users shared meme videos of themselves hiding money from Erdoğan. Of course, with virality come investigations, and while it’s not a crime to withhold money from the state, joking about it is apparently.
Elsewhere, the cost-of-living in Turkey rose by 80.2 percent (or 181 percent) last month on an annual basis. Regional data has been lacking since April when official bodies suspended sharing those numbers, but the İstanbul Chamber of Commerce estimates annual inflation in İstanbul to be around 99 percent.
TOKİ’n loud and saying nothing
Faced with high rents and inflation, Turkey is getting more gray buildings to solve the housing issues as the government unveiled plans for a new home-ownership project. A promised 500,000 new homes and 50,000 offices will be built by the state-run housing agency, TOKİ, which is known for its attention to aesthetics all over Turkey.
The cost is a reported $50 billion for the “biggest ever home-ownership push” as stated by Pres. Erdoğan Tuesday. The Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Min. Kurum noted later that the number of applicant has already surpassed 1.5 million since the project announcement, and that those accepted will be offered up to 240 payment installments.
That is, 240 months of “working overtime and money borrowing” as suggested by Kurum, for those that earn minimum wage (5500 TL) but still want to live in social housing.
Cat and house game
And the US embassy in Ankara finished the big move to its new complex outside the city center, but reportedly left behind 25-30 street cats without food “as per claims.”
We could point to the consequences of other US pullouts, but we’re above that. Instead we’re pointing to solutions, like recruiting the cat feeding team from the Turkish parliament just one block away.
It’s a purrfect fix and like other parts of the region, when the US leaves a vacuum, Ankara’s usually glad to fill it.
Speed reads
FM Çavuşoğlu to represent Türkiye at Queen Elizabeth's funeral (DS)
Senior executive of Daesh/ISIS terror group captured in Türkiye (AA)
Justice Ministry says number of jailed journalists 'doesn't concern public' (Bianet)
No Kurds with Swedish citizenship will be extradited, Sweden's PM says (Duvar)
Turkey calls on next Swedish government to take counter-terrorism steps needed for NATO membership (Reuters)
Court lifts singer Gülşen's house arrest (Bianet)
Construction said to be halted at Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (Duvar)
Turkey ends mobility app Marti probe after commitments (Reuters)
'Ankara Municipality charges higher fees from foreigners for water subscription' (Bianet)
Weekend reads
Turkey vs. Türkiye
Analyst and fellow Substacker Selim Koru reassures us that it’s okay to remain “Turkey recap” instead of “Türkiye recap,” likening the “crude” imposition of a name-change policy to “ignorance and incompetence distilled at a very high consistency, served in fine china by white-gloved waiters.” (Kültürkampf)
Hostage to Hubris: Turkey’s Long Road Ahead In Syria
Analyst Gareth Jenkins lays out various options for Turkey’s future role in Syria, writing: “Erdoğan appears to have convinced himself that al-Assad will agree to a power-sharing arrangement with the rebels that will allow the refugees in Turkey to return to Syria ... In reality, there appears little prospect of this happening.” (Turkey Analyst)
How Much Multipolarity Does a Strongman Need?: Why Erdoğan Has Benefited From Russia’s Failure in Ukraine
Analyst Nicholas Danforth dissects narratives on Turkey’s balancing act over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, arguing Ankara has benefited from “Russia’s unexpected weakness.” In the counterfactual take, if Moscow oversaw a swift victory, he writes “Erdoğan would be facing a more formidable strategic environment from the Black Sea through the Caucasus to Syria.” (WOTR)
Week ahead
Sept 15-16 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit
Sept 15-22 Erdoğan visits US for UN General Assembly
Sept 20 MEI hosts a panel titled: “Greco-Turkish Tensions: What It Means for NATO Unity and Regional Peace” at 1600 GMT
Sept 21 Trial of Saturday Mothers resumes in İstanbul (background)
Sept 21 Trial of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu resumes (background)
Sept 22 Trial of filmmakers/journalists Çayan Demirel and Ertuğrul Mavioğlu resumes in Batman (background)
Sept 22 Central bank monetary policy committee announces interest rate decision
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Batuhan Üsküp, editorial intern @batuskup