EU concern and Meloni cornered. This Bluesky page on EU enrollment. These are a few of our favorite things.
In this week’s recap:
Gaza truce resets US-Turkey ties
Ankara mayor faces probe
Void of action, PKK talks ongoing
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Cappadocia caves double as pantries
Also from us this week:
Seda Demiralp gauges the Yavaş investigation and CHP response on Recap radio
Turkey recap is six years old and punning strong. This is what we do.
Next week: The Washington Institute’s Soner Çağaptay joins our podcast to discuss US-Turkey coordination on the Israel-Gaza war and Syria.
Watch the livestream here Oct. 20 at 1200 UTC / 1500 TRT.
“When I need him, he’s always there.” That’s how Trump framed Erdoğan’s help with the Gaza ceasefire after complimenting his wife and making other awkward statements.
Though Turkey’s role remains undefined as the truce is tested, one clear takeaway from Monday’s peace summit is that US-Turkey ties are on more favorable terms after several tense years under the Biden administration.
According to various reports, this pivot helped swing Gaza peace talks as Turkish officials worked to bring Hamas officials to the negotiating table – which was significant for Trump, said Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute.
“From Trump’s perspective, of the three wars that he wanted to end, Turkey has ended one and a half, basically directly in the Syrian war and indirectly in the Gaza war. So, it makes him quite grateful to Turkey, I think, at this point,” Çağaptay told Turkey recap.
The win could pave the way for further improvements in US-Turkey ties, Çağaptay argued, potentially addressing longstanding defense sector sanctions linked to Turkey’s 2019 acquisition of Russian-made S-400 missiles.
“Trump is eager to go beyond the S-400 … and allow Turkey to purchase weapons from the US, including F-35s. We’re not there yet, but I think it was a huge confidence-building measure for Erdoğan to make that delivery,” he said, referring to the Gaza peace deal.
Counterargument: The declaration signed Monday by the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey is vague. This has led opposition parties to question the real achievements of Turkish mediation.
Namık Tan, former Turkish envoy to the US and Israel, current CHP MP overseeing foreign affairs, said he doubted Erdoğan’s capacity to steer Trump toward Ankara’s foreign policy goals.
“If Turkey’s regional diplomacy in the Middle East had been as successful as Donald Trump praised, we would have seen Turkey more active in the political restoration of Syria and Gaza,” Tan told Turkey recap.
Tan added that Erdoğan’s pro-Hamas stance through the war in Gaza would restrict Turkey’s ability to operate on the ground in the post-conflict period. He also expressed doubts about the sincerity of Erdoğan’s humanitarian concerns.
“Based on his two and a half decade political legacy, we are almost sure that Erdoğan’s policymaking will prioritize profits for Turkish construction companies rather than playing a pioneer role to provide humanitarian help to the war-torn civilians of Gaza,” Tan told Turkey recap.
What’s next: Erdoğan and Defense Min. Güler have stated Turkey is prepared to take part in joint task forces overseeing the ceasefire on the ground. According to Reuters, these forces may also help locate missing hostages.
Separately, Turkey’s MFA today said the former AFAD head would oversee aid to Gaza as initial deliveries are now en route. More details are expected soon, though FM Fidan last week stressed the “reconstruction and administration of Gaza should be managed by the Palestinians.”
Echoing Tan, Çağaptay also said Israel would seek to “prevent direct Turkish involvement in Gaza’s future” due to Erdoğan’s pro-Hamas stance. Though he said Trump may push to carve out some space for Turkey, given the nation’s facility as a regional power, and its status as a NATO ally.
“We may end up with Turkey being present in Gaza, but only in a non-military capacity. You know, through aid, humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and other efforts, maybe Turkish NGOs,” Çağaptay told Turkey recap.
“Whichever way it pans out, it’s really historic because this is a big departure from Turkey’s previous position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Before Erdogan, in the 20th century, Turkey was completely an outside observer to this issue.”
Yavaş decision: Ankara mayor faces probe
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