Jets Can’t Get Enough

Issue #179

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Relishing in his victory four months on, Reis signs a Kılıçdaroğlu poster. © TCCB

Previously reported green lights are turning yellow and then red lights, and we’re almost running out of puns on this topic. Yes, we’re talking about Sweden’s NATO accession process.

The latest addition to the saga is Pres. Erdoğan being “seriously upset”. The reason?

“Unfortunately, friends keep bringing Sweden up when it comes to the F-16 issue,” he said during a press conference Sunday following the G20 in India, referring to US Pres. Joe Biden.

“You say you have a Congress to consider, I have my own Congress,” Erdoğan continued, adding he was not in the position to reach a decision on his own. 

While some US congress members have connected the F-16 transfer to Sweden’s NATO accession, the two are not officially linked, leaving NATO diplomats to believe this is a “chicken and egg situation”, as Al-Monitor reported. 

"Both sides [Turkey and the US] publicly deny that there is a linkage between the F-16 deal and NATO enlargement, but my sense is that the former is the key to the latter," Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University's Institute for Turkish Studies, told the EU Observer.

The US State Dept. spox indeed denied those links Monday, but elaborated during a press briefing: “There are members of Congress who believe that the two issues are closely tied together, so while we do not believe that they are linked, we’re not the only actor in this process.” 

As a result, Swedish accession to NATO remains “rather stalled”, said Marianna Serveta, a Turkey analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, adding “negotiations are taking place on more levels than what the process requires.”

Last week, we reported the Swedish FM was still hopeful on the bid. According to Serveta, that’s because Stockholm officials insist Sweden has fulfilled its duties as they were noted in the trilateral memorandum signed in June 2022.

“What could potentially crush those hopes is Erdoğan selectively playing the democracy card,” Serveta told Turkey recap. “Considering that his bloc has the majority in parliament, he could get his way through when the parliament reconvenes in October.” 

Another option Serveta mentioned is Erdoğan leaving the decision up to parliament. 

“A parliament consisting of, among others, conservative, Islamist and (ultra)nationalist parties who are much more sensitive to events taking place in Sweden – as the Quran burning – despite them being irrelevant to the memorandum obligations. This could pave the way to more delays, in a way that does not directly target Erdoğan.”

Commenting on the way forward, Serveta believed Turkey has a different time frame than Sweden, stating, “Erdoğan has not gone this far in creating obstructions to come home empty-handed.” 

She also encouraged observers to think more broadly about Turkey’s gains since the blockade began. 

“It has, among other gains, secured assurances with regard to its relationship with the EU, and it has managed to reflect Turkish security concerns within NATO’s agenda. President Erdoğan has also raised his profile in countries of Turkish interest both in the Arab world and in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood,” Serveta said. 

“Considering the gains already made and Erdoğan’s capacity to influence public opinion at home, it is not impossible that we will see a shift of approach. What is vital for Turkey now, is preserving an elegant balance among all the frontiers where it has stakes,” she concluded. 

– Ingrid Woudwijk