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In this week’s recap:
Breaking: Court rules to dissolve CHP leadership
Turkey-Germany strategic dialogue revived
Peace process gets quasi-modal
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Ankara scouts jogging route for Macron
Also from us this week:
Jalel Harchaoui joins our podcast to outline Turkey’s changing Libya policy
RSVP here for the first Turkey recap get-together in Ankara. +40 people already signed up. Come out and say hi.
As this newsletter was sent out, an Ankara Court of Appeals ruled to provisionally suspend the leadership of CHP chair Özgür Özel and the party administration. Former CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will take over the party leadership.
Kılıçdaroğlu led the CHP from 2010 to 2023, and just yesterday, he reclaimed the news cycle with a video statement, in which he said the CHP cannot be a “sanctuary” for corruption, and that the party knows how to cleanse itself “when necessary”.
This comes as the CHP faces the concurrent pressures of non-stop municipal corruption investigations and the lawsuit against the party’s leadership structure stemming from alleged irregularities during the CHP’s 2023 internal elections — otherwise known as the congress trial.
What it means: A “mutlak butlan” or “absolute nullity” ruling essentially voids the current CHP leadership and its actions following the 2023 party congress.
Kılıçdaroğlu had not denied claims he would retake the party chairmanship through a court ruling, though many CHP members and voters previously told Turkey recap they would interpret such a comeback as the equivalent of a “kayyum” or a state-appointed trustee to lead the CHP.
In the broader context, this long-standing issue is resurfacing amid more fervent snap election speculations than usual in Ankara (covered in the last recap).
Early election link? A CHP leadership crisis could trigger an early vote, though some AKP members have reportedly voiced opposition to the heavy-handed crackdown on the CHP, while some pro-gov media figures stated an “absolute nullity” ruling could come this week, which it did.
Earlier this month, former AKP deputy Şamil Tayyar said a court decision had been reached but not publicized. Though last week on X, he said he did not expect early elections due to the decision.
“There is a lot of movement in Ankara,” he wrote, adding that “politics from July onward seem poised to enter a new track.”
Video reactions: Looping back to Kılıçdaroğlu, his statement Wednesday was not well received on social media, where many openly blamed him for Erdoğan’s 2023 election victory. Within the CHP, initial responses were more respectful towards the ex-chair while denying claims of wrongdoing by the party.
CHP parliamentary advisors told Turkey recap the party would continue to address internal party disagreements privately to preserve its public image.
That said, many party members are convinced the AKP’s aim is to maintain the semblance of political opposition in Turkey while preventing any true challenges to power, as seen with the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu.
Or as Özel wrote in The Economist Tuesday: The AKP’s “goal is not to eliminate the opposition but to tame it: allowing it to contest elections, and even govern big cities, while forcing it to operate within narrowing constraints.”
Analysis: Speaking to Turkey recap today, Berk Esen, associate professor of political science at Sabancı University in Istanbul, said Kılıçdaroğlu sought to prepare the stage for his political return with his video statement Wednesday.
Esen continued, stating Kılıçdaroğlu would initially face backlash from CHP core voters but it’d be short-lived since he’d shape the party to accommodate his leadership ahead of the next party congress, which is not planned for another year or so.
“During this time, he can purge party officials at the local level, try to generate support, not so much among the base, but among the party cadres who would now see him as the leader and — in order to rise through the party ranks — they would pay homage to him,” Esen told Turkey recap.
“I really think that he wants leadership for himself. He’s out for vengeance,” Esen concluded. “He didn’t really accept losing the party leadership in the November 2023 congress. And he probably accuses those who defected from his side to join Özgür Özel of being traitors.”
Dost Kapital: Turkey-Germany strategic dialogue revived after 12-year pause
