Dear readers: It’s been an eventful year and it’s been an honor recapping it for you. After this week, our English-language recaps will take a two-week break—unless there are more events.
That said, keep an eye out for some special, year-end newsletters from us. If you still need that daily hit of Turkish politics, Stüdyo recap will keep dishing out the news from Ankara. Happy holidays!
In this week’s recap:
Erdoğan seeks S-400 refund
Interview with an EU skeptic
Arrest spotlights AKP ‘civil war’
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Tigris River foaming at the mouth
Also from us this week:
Karolina Wanda Olszowska & Karol Wasilewski on Russian disinformation in Turkey
Tomorrow: Emily Rice Johnson on minimum wage discourse in our Economy recap
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Like most of us this holiday season, Ankara will be exploring refund options … on Russian missile defense systems.
That’s right, Pres. Erdoğan wants to return the notorious S-400s in a move to boost US ties and get Turkey back on the list of countries that can buy F-35 fighter jets. The best part is he really does want a refund, according to Bloomberg, which broke the story last night.
It’s one way to end with a bang and the surprising headline ties together all the week’s news from the Black Sea. Let’s break down events in chronological order:
The timeline: Last Friday, Turkey’s defense ministry said there were “no new developments regarding the S-400” following previous statements by US Turkey envoy Thomas Barrack who said negotiations were underway with the eventual goal of removing CAATSA sanctions on Turkey.
Also last Friday, Erdoğan met with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin at a summit in Turkmenistan (pictured above), where the pair discussed a Ukraine ceasefire, according to public statements.
At about the same time as the meeting, a Turkish car ferry anchored in Odesa was hit by airstrikes that Kyiv blamed on Moscow. Russia reportedly struck two Ukrainian ports that day, damaging three Turkish-owned vessels.
The twist, according to Bloomberg, is that Erdoğan reportedly raised the S-400s issue in his meeting with Putin Friday. If confirmed, this provides new context for the stray drone that was shot down while approaching Turkish airspace Monday.
The drone’s origin remains unconfirmed, though according to a Defense Ministry statement, it “had gone out of control” and it was targeted by a Turkish F-16. An investigation is ongoing.
Then, on Tuesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced it was conducting planned Tu-22M3 long-range bomber flights over international waters in the Black Sea with fighter jet escorts.
Whether routine or not, Erdoğan chimed in the same day to reiterate concerns about the Ukraine-Russia conflict spilling over into the Black Sea.
“Recent reciprocal attacks seriously threaten navigation safety in the region,” Erdoğan said. “Targeting commercial and civilian ships benefits no one. We have clearly conveyed our warnings to both sides on this matter.”
In the background, Barrack met with Turkish FM Hakan Fidan Tuesday. A US delegation followed up Wednesday, adding positive messaging on the S-400 issue from the former US National Security Adviser to the VP Philip Gordon.
Analysis: Just before we sent this newsletter, the Kremlin denied that S-400s were discussed in Friday’s meeting. Ankara has yet to confirm the Bloomberg report. Regardless, the S-400 purchase was always a gamble, and it remains to be seen if Erdoğan can cash out.
Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the move would be “really brave and brazen” for Erdoğan as it marks a significant pivot in his relationship with Putin.
“I think it just shows how important it is for Erdoğan to reset Turkey’s ties with the US and improve his ties with Trump,” Çağaptay told Turkey recap. “Once the S-400s are returned, even the staunchest opponents of Turkey will have a really hard time justifying why Turkey should not have access to the F-35s.”
When asked how Moscow might respond, he said Russia typically retaliates with “passive aggressive military moves” in or near Turkey’s maritime boundaries, as it did following Turkey’s 2015 downing of a Russian Su-24 fighter jet on the Turkey-Syria border.
The Black Sea is “an international space, but it’s too close for Turkey’s taste,” Çağaptay said, adding Russia may apply other forms of pressure through informal trade sanctions on Turkey.
“[Moscow can] suddenly announce that Turkey’s tomatoes and other sought-after produce … doesn’t meet Russia’s health requirements,” he continued.
“Russia could go further with support for anti-HTS groups in Syria, including through former regime remnants and destabilize Syria … that would be one area where Turkey’s more exposed.”
Interview with an EU skeptic: Hasan Ünal
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