Peace And Desist

Issue #247

By the time you read this, Öcalan might have shared his message. The following is an attempt to put it into context and predict what might happen next.

For a detailed overview of the entire Turkey-PKK conflict, see Emily Rice Johnson’s new timeline, available to our News Tracking Tools members.

In this week’s recap:

• Öcalan statement in transit

• İmamoğlu faces new investigation

• CHP primary preview

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Erdoğan picks new carpet for Umayyad Mosque

Also from us this week:

• Diego Cupolo on how the Trump admin’s Ukraine policy shift upped Turkey’s value as an EU defense partner

• For more detailed coverage on parliamentary news, see our new Meclis recap

DEM co-chair Tuncer Bakırhan: “Millions of people are praying for a solution this time.” © DEM

It looks like the planets have aligned for a Turkey-PKK peace process. Or at least the potential start of one.

Four short months ago, MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli called on jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to disband the militant group in exchange for some yet to be defined concessions.

Today, we await a message from Öcalan at about 1700 Turkey time. According to multiple sources and commentators, he is expected to call on the PKK to lay down arms and disband.

The move could launch negotiations to end a 40-year conflict between the Turkish state and PKK militants that has caused more than 40,000 deaths, razed city centers and burned out villages, leading to forced displacement primarily in Turkey’s southeast.

Until recently, the prospects for such a process were far-fetched and may remain so regardless of what happens this evening. Realistically, ending the multifront conflict may take years if the Colombia-FARC ceasefire can serve as a reference point. Additionally, Turkey’s last peace talks collapsed in 2015.

Still, Erdoğan appears to have set the stage for the announcement in his recent speeches. He has repeated narratives about the AKP leading a new “new Turkey” without “others”, often referencing minority and language rights.

“As Turks, Kurds, and Arabs, we will all unite together and tear down the wall of terror that has risen on the blood of our children for exactly 40 years,” Erdoğan said Sunday. “After the terrorism problem is eliminated, with God’s permission, the doors to a new era will open – from democracy to development, from brotherhood to regional integration.”

In this context, DEM Party is organizing today’s events. A seven-member delegation held its third meeting with Öcalan on İmralı island at the time of writing. Delegation members are soon expected to share his message at an İstanbul press conference, which will be broadcasted in several Kurdish-majority city squares.

While DEM Party has sought to share a video message from Öcalan, the Turkish justice minister has stated the request was “not appropriate”, meaning the message may be conveyed through text or audio.

If the message is what everyone expects, the main question will be whether the PKK and its ideologically-aligned groups heed Öcalan’s call. Reha Ruhavioğlu, director of the Diyarbakır-based Kurdish Studies Center, said militants are likely to comply with their leader over time, emphasizing major changes cannot be expected overnight.

“If Öcalan makes the call, we expect its effect to be far-reaching, and I think all the recent meetings were conducted to maximize that effect,” he told Turkey recap, referring to DEM Party delegation meetings in northern Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

Asked what concessions we might see, Ruhavioğlu said the peace process will have a greater short-term impact on developments in Syria, where “constitutional recognition [of Kurds] and mother-tongue education rights will be implemented more quickly.”

“In Turkey, I predict that political participation rights will be guaranteed first. That means there will need to be some abandonment of the trustee appointments,” he added, saying revised anti-terror legislation and language rights may come later.

Throughout, the process remains fragile and the variables countless. Ruhavioğlu said the establishment of a timeline with specific benchmarks could help move negotiations forward amid regional volatility.

“What will happen to [PKK] members? How will the lives of those who lay down arms take shape in Turkey or another country? I think all these issues will be resolved over time,” he continued.

“Qandil's compliance with this process could create a situation in Turkey where we can discuss democratic rights beyond armed resistance."

Ekrem İmamoğlu addresses supporters on Jan. 31. Source

Hayır education: İmamoğlu faces new investigation