Peanut Mutter And Bahçeli

Issue #189

Looks like it wasn’t a biji Dilan night in the Netherlands after Ankara-born Dilan Yeşilgöz’s party came out third in yesterday’s Dutch elections, but that didn’t stop many Turkish media outlets and Twitter users from prematurely reporting her win.

The Mardin damadı also fell short as the biggest winner was Geert Wilders, the anti-Erdoğan, whose election program includes kicking Turkey out of NATO.

In this week’s issue:

• Proposed legal changes test the ruling alliance

• Erdoğan goes to Germany

• Turkey calls for permanent Israel-Gaza truce

• A look inside Sweden’s NATO talks

• CB hikes the interest rate again

• Intentional and unintentional departures

And do read Diego Cupolo’s report on the political implications of much-talked-about constitutional changes and what they might mean for the post-Erdoğan AKP.

Devlet Bahçeli, head of the party with a campaign music catalog. © MHP

Turkey’s judiciary crisis is growing, alliances are being tested and Devlet Bahçeli is back in the spotlight with fresh drama. Some call it home, we call it the official kick-off for the next election season.

Amid the ongoing clash between two high courts, the Constitutional Court (AYM) and the Supreme Court of Appeals (Yargıtay), a new prosecutor has been assigned to investigate the complaints lodged against the former by the latter. 

Still, this might not resolve anything as Yargıtay insists its decision is “closed to objections”, despite the AYM’s mandate to do just that and the constitution, falan filan.

Meanwhile, the AKP began preparing amendments to individual application procedures for the AYM to prevent similar collisions in the future. This comes with broader changes Erdoğan seeks to implement in the constitution and apparently also in the election system.

Last Friday, Erdoğan signaled he wanted to abolish the "50+1 system” in which presidents are elected through an absolute majority vote – a model that was introduced under AKP rule. Instead, he suggested winners be chosen based on who has the most votes, which he believes would render the elections more efficient.

While Justice Min. Yılmaz Tunç supported Erdoğan’s proposition as a “reform” that retains the existing executive presidency model, the matter has triggered debates on the future of the country’s ruling alliance and faced backlash from both the opposition and Erdoğan’s main ally, Bahçeli.

The MHP leader said Tuesday he was in favor of keeping the presidential and election models as they are. The rare public disagreement is expected to be discussed privately when Erdoğan and Bahçeli meet today (Thursday).

“In its twenty-year history, the AKP has consistently had partners clustered within the state, and these partners have tried to usurp the AKP's space to govern,” political scientist Burak Bilgehan Özpek told Turkey recap.

He added the legal changes are the AKP's attempt to decrease its dependencies, like its reliance on MHP votes in parliament. 

Some commentators are already talking about a possible rift between the ruling parties. And like typical break-ups, if one side is in a denial phase, some aggressive behavior can be expected. 

With or without Bahçeli, to move forward with his propositions and change the system, Erdoğan would still need other parties’ support. Though, if passed, the new system will come with its new problems, especially for opposition parties, Özpek said. 

“The absence of 50+1 will reduce the bargaining power of small parties and transfer the dissatisfied voters [these parties] were able to attract … back to the big parties,” he said. 

Opposition parties, in the meantime, are occupied with internal conflicts and local election preparations as candidates (and strategies) for major cities have yet to be announced. 

Speaking of, in yet another legal impasse, İzmir Mayor Soyer is being investigated for “insulting the Ottoman Empire and last emperor Vahdettin” over a speech in which he cited Atatürk.

He is also being investigated for allegedly giving a church bell to the Greek consulate in another case. Reminder: both time and law are relative.

– Verda Uyar