Poll-itics As Usual

Issue #201

Elections are no walk in the park, but at least two candidates were spotted see-sawing, and “swings” were trending this week after one journalist made an unfortunate reference to “swinger” votes.

In this week’s recap:

• Four weeks to vote and polls are tight

• Turkey argues against Israel at ICJ

• New US sanctions hit Turkish entities

• Turkey nears exit from financial “gray” list

• Bahçeli sends 70 birthday roses

And in our original reports:

• Diego Cupolo on Turkey’s potential role in the Israel-Gaza war

• Soner Can Mılık’s op-ed on how Somalia could benefit from Turkey-UAE cooperation

İmamoğlu and Özel campaign in İstanbul’s Sultangazi district. © CHP

"We lead the recent polls with 1-1.5 points," AKP's İstanbul candidate Murat Kurum said in a Habertürk TV interview Tuesday. "That's why they're in great haste."

On the other hand, "they," the incumbent mayor and CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu's team, shared their own numbers with Sözcü columnist Aytunç Ertekin and didn't sound anxious. Team İmamoğlu claimed it was leading by a margin of three points, and they expect this to increase in the last week before voting day on March 31.

Other polling companies – the reliability of which we outlined in our handy "survey-val guide" last year – also provide not-so-clear forecasts. Some results show an İmamoğlu lead, and others indicate that Kurum support is rising.

According to BBC Türkçe's one-month-to-elections report, AKP is also aware that a cut-throat race continues for İstanbul.

"AKP and MHP see taking İstanbul back as the most important gauge of electoral success," the analysis stated, adding they know it will be difficult and Kurum is working hard to bring more voters to the AKP camp.

Yet, according to the analysis, both parties also know DEM Party voters will be pivotal in the results. Experts previously told Turkey recap that DEM candidates could draw their party’s supporters away from İmamoğlu.

Claiming the 2023 elections eroded Kurdish voters' confidence in CHP, DEM's İstanbul candidate Meral Danış Beştaş told journalist Cansu Çamlıbel that İmamoğlu's almost non-existing criticism against the state-appointed trustee (kayyım) system, hasn’t helped his popularity.

"If we had not supported İmamoğlu in 2019 and the Kurds had not voted for him, could he have won?" Beştaş asked before answering: "No."

"We helped İmamoğlu win the election. When trustees were appointed to our 50 municipalities, do you remember how many words İmamoğlu shared about this situation?"

Meanwhile, Roj Girasun from Rawest Research claimed DEM Party may adopt a neutral stance in metropolitan areas where it holds sway to safeguard its dominance in other provinces.

In his interview with CATS, Girasun said: "This approach is partly motivated by the intent to normalize relations with the government through trust-building.”

However, Beştaş refuted gossip about a secret deal with the government in her interview.

"We don't have an alliance or connection with the government," she said.

Beştaş added, "[But] if an atmosphere for that is formed after the elections, of course, we'll be ready for a solution. If the government takes a step like this, we will sit at the table with them – not as an ally but as an interlocutor."

– Gonca Tokyol