For the break, we went to Atakule, but in 1990. The air was hazy like our memories. The shoulder pads, huge like this week’s news cycle.
In this week’s recap:
Israel-Iran war implications for Turkey
CHP under sustained pressure
DEM wants process, not recess
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Man snaps “life-saving selfie”
Also from us this week:
Berk Esen on the legal challenges facing the CHP via Recap radio.
Meltem Akyol on how rising prices are raising child hunger risks in Turkey.
Tomorrow: Emily Rice Johnson takes on the rate decision in Economy recap.
Monday: FPRI Pres. Aaron Stein joins our podcast to discuss Iran, Syria and US-Turkey ties.
Israel and Iran are now directly at war and, like in all regional conflicts, implications for Turkey involve a mix of perceived threats, possible threats and polemics.
The prospect of an Israeli attack on Turkey stands out as a leading perceived threat in online discussions. While a MetroPOLL survey Friday found 25 percent of respondents believed Israel would strike Turkey, this narrative remains widespread in political discourse.
Most prominently, MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli released a statement Friday warning Israel is seeking to undermine the PKK peace process and that its “ultimate target” is Turkey.
In the gray zone
Between perceived and possible threats, are the motives of Kurdish groups in Iran, like the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), which issued a statement Saturday calling for a renewal of the 2022 "Jin, Jiyan, Azadi" protests.
Calls to support such an uprising, like this one from a Times of Israel columnist, raise concerns not just in Turkey, but for other nations, as well.
Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, said suggestions that Israel’s offensive might disrupt PKK dissolution seem to be “exaggerated.”
“The escalation with Iran, because of its intensity, will likely not be too long, and it was anyhow assumed that PJAK would not dissolve,” she told Turkey recap.
In his analysis, Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, Ankara director for the German Marshall Fund, noted non-state actors could make gains in a “potential power vacuum”.
Possible threats
New conflicts tend to resurface this Borat meme and concerns of mass migration flows to Turkey amid regional instability. Initial reports from Turkey’s 569-KM border with Iran indicate a slight increase of crossings, but nothing substantial considering Ankara offers 90-day visa-free entry to Iranians.
BBC Persian reported Iranians have yet to leave en masse due to a lack of gasoline and expectations the missile barrages will end soon. The Turkish presidency’s Center for Combating Disinformation has also been refuting claims of Iranian migration waves on social media.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s defense minister said border security would be ramped up Wednesday.
“If the regime falls or if there is total chaos … how many millions of people are going to try to cross the border? I think that's the number one concern,” Soli Özel, a fellow at Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, told Turkey recap.
“Secondly,” he continued. “An Israel that is totally out of control and trying to establish perhaps a Pax Hebraica, which it may or may not consolidate – I don't think it can. That will disturb the Gulf countries, as well, with which Israel now has much better relations.”
Özel said the fighting has yet to conclude and the results depend on many variables, but he underlined the geopolitical picture in the region is changing and, “contrary to the past in Turkish and Israeli relations, there are now a lot of conflicts of interest between the two which go beyond the theological ones.”
A rise in energy prices could also impact Turkey’s economy, which we’ll cover in tomorrow’s Economy recap.
Polemics
There is also the war of words and political posturing. The Turkish parliament unanimously approved a motion Wednesday condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran.
Speaking Monday, Pres. Erdoğan called for the accelerated production of medium and long-range missiles to improve deterrence. Then Wednesday, the Turkish leader raised the volume in his condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza and the region. Full text here.
Notably, Erdoğan said Iran had a “legitimate” right to defend itself against Israel. The speech drew a response from Israeli FM Gideon Sa'ar, which then drew another response from the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
Prior to Erdoğan’s speech Wednesday, Lindenstrauss said there had been little mention of Turkey in Israeli news and political discourse.
“Had Erdoğan not voiced very harsh statements toward Israel in the past days, Israel's public opinion would have been focused only on its home front challenges and the evolving confrontation with Iran,” she told Turkey recap.
In contrast to the verbal exchanges, Lindenstrauss argued Ankara may eventually benefit from a weakened Iran, which she said would have reduced nuclear proliferation capabilities and would pose less threats to stability in Syria.
Echoing the assessment in a recent roundtable discussion, Gönül Tol, director of the Middle East Institute's Turkey program, said Ankara will likely welcome a less powerful Iran and a more isolated Israel – two dynamics that reinforce Turkey’s current foreign policy track.
Vise precedent: CHP under sustained pressure
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