Saline Dissolution

Issue #258

Announcement: We’re hosting a live webcast with journalist Ezgi Başaran, author of the book Frontline Turkey: The Conflict at the Heart of the Middle East and the newsletter Angle, Anchor, and Voice.

We’ll put the Turkey-PKK peace process in context and discuss what to expect next.

Join us at this link Monday, May 19 at 0900 EST / 1300 UTC / 1600 TRT.

In this week’s recap:

• PKK to disarm, dissolve

• Implications for Iraq and Syria

• Russia-Ukraine talks spotlight Turkey

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• CHP blamed for oligarch villa

Also from us this week:

• Selim Koru spoke about the peace process on our new podcast, now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube

• Çınar Özer on the secret witnesses used to incriminate Imamoğlu and many others in Turkey

• And keep track of legislation in parliament with our Turkish-language newsletter: Meclis recap

Duran Kalkan, a senior PKK leader, at the group’s congress last week. © ANF

My experience: Few topics trigger an emotional response like the Kurdish issue in Turkey. This is true for both citizens and foreign journalists, many of whom have tried to counterbalance overly positive media narratives of Kurdish militants from the anti-ISIS campaigns.

I live between the two groups. Over the years, I’ve had countless conversations end abruptly when I mentioned my wife was Kurdish or, more recently, a DEM Party MP (full disclosure). People just walk away.

I was reminded of this last night when I hailed a ride with a neighborhood taxi driver who used to talk to me openly, warmly even, before he knew that one data point. We rode in silence as I thought about how to convey the peace process to readers who may not experience these moments.

Peace, in general, is supported by the advisors and politicians I spoke with in parliament this week. But the method and implications behind the process remain unsettling for many – and have yet to gain popular support, according to recent polling.

What happened: The PKK published a statement Monday announcing it would apply Öcalan’s Feb. 27 call to disarm, dissolve and “end the armed struggle.”

“Current developments in the Middle East within the scope of World War III also make the restructuring of Kurdish-Turkish relations inevitable,” the statement read, largely echoing recent narratives from Ankara.

The news comes after the PKK last week held a congress, which Öcalan joined remotely, according to some reports.

Then on Sunday, DEM Party announced a new Democratic Union Initiative, which is framed as a “civil society platform” that prioritizes “a fair, equal and democratic solution to the Kurdish issue and also the democratization of Turkey.”

In the broader context, this peace process comes as Turkish democracy is severely backsliding following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu and many other opposition figures, resulting in various debates about “democratization” and concerns that DEM Party may support Erdoğan’s policies in exchange.

Expectations: Columnist Abdulkadir Selvi, the unofficial palace spokesperson, wrote Tuesday that Turkey’s intelligence agency (MİT) would monitor the disarmament process in the coming months.

He underlined the United Nations would not be involved, and that MİT would solely oversee developments in multiple countries. Once disarmament is confirmed, Selvi wrote “the ‘democratic transformation’ process will begin regarding the [rights of] PKK militants as well as elderly and sick prisoners.”

Speaking on many aspects of the process Wednesday, Erdoğan said: "It is of vital importance that the Syrian and European branches of the organization … participate in the dissolution and disarmament process.”

In return for disarmament, the PKK seeks legal reforms and Öcalan’s release. The latter was ruled out by Justice Min. Yılmaz Tunç Wednesday, but observers say Öcalan’s prison conditions may improve.

Erdoğan also suggested the practice of replacing elected DEM Party mayors with state-appointed trustees may become an “exceptional measure”.

Analysis: There are many nuances to the process which remain undefined, and too many reactions to include here. Yet, the consensus puts the ball in Ankara’s court following the PKK’s announcement.

“What comes next will now depend on how Ankara responds,” Berkay Mandıracı, senior Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group, told Turkey recap.

“The Kurdish side is demanding concrete steps before actual disarmament can begin. The PKK and DEM Party expect the Turkish military to cease operations and have called on the government and parliament to guide the process by formally endorsing it through legislation,” he added.

Ezgi Başaran, the journalist and author we’ll speak to Monday, said she views Monday’s announcement as “a first step” in “a transactional process.”

“We have to realize this is a leap of faith and a show of goodwill from the side of the Kurdish movement,” Başaran told Turkey recap.

“The disarmament process has to be rapid to impede any outside force from disrupting it,” she added. “It has to be planned perfectly and I think the intelligence apparatus is working on it.”

Regional implications are covered below, but if successful, the process would have resounding implications for domestic politics in Turkey, Mandıracı said.

“Voluntary disbandment is still short of military defeat and offers a somewhat face-saving exit,” he told Turkey recap. “If the process comes to fruition, the domestic political payoff for Erdoğan and his party would be immense.”

Jordanian FM Ayman Safadi, Turkish FM Hakan Fidan and Syrian Asaad al-Shaibani in a joint presser Monday. © MFA

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