Scaling the castle: CHP dominance challenged in İzmir, Turkey’s secular stronghold
İZMİR — “Look at those potholes,” Ömer Cenkli, an İzmir taxi driver in his 30s, said while driving in Bornova, one of the province’s central districts.
Moving slowly in heavy traffic on Abdi İpekçi Street, the car made a clunking sound.
“In the last six months, I replaced the steering box twice,” Cenkli said. “The sound you heard came from there. It looks like a third visit to the mechanic is around the corner. That’s why I want a change in this city.”
Cenkli is one of several İzmir residents who told Turkey recap they wanted a shift in city management. Located on the country’s western coast, İzmir is often called the “castle” of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) for its long-time support of secular politics.
Yet, in Sunday’s local elections, the CHP will face diverse competitors that may not only splinter the vote, but also threaten to snatch away some districts and possibly the mayorship.
City residents, politicians and experts told Turkey recap the CHP’s dominance in İzmir was no longer guaranteed, and a shift in voting patterns could crack the door open for an ascent of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the province.
The AKP challenge
Leading the push for change is AKP İzmir mayoral candidate Hamza Dağ.
Wearing jeans, a turtleneck skivvy and a blazer with earth tones, Dağ visited the city’s Yeşilova neighborhood last Thursday to greet residents. He smiled sincerely and attracted significant attention as he visited business owners in the area.
"Hamza Bey fasts during Ramadan," said Ömer Süt, a campaign team member for Dağ. "And still, he is energetic after hours of campaigning since he loves this city. He wants to bring service to this city."
According to Dağ’s team, the province’s residents lack many services because CHP believes it’s invincible in İzmir and, therefore, does not provide for its citizens. Dağ’s team claims the AKP can end this alleged negligence.
“Life in İzmir is becoming more and more difficult every day,” Süt told Turkey recap. “And people know that party politics won’t solve their problems.”
"This is our second tour around the districts of İzmir," he continued. "In the first thirty days of our campaign, we visited every CHP district. Between then and now, I can definitely say the support for Hamza Bey has increased."
Stronghold weakens
İzmir, the nation’s third largest province by population, has often supported liberal and center-right parties since the 1950s, when Turkey transitioned to a multi-party system.
In the 2000s, all İzmir metropolitan mayors and many smaller district heads came from the CHP. The party’s vote share in the province was also more than double its national share in general elections at the time.
Then in 2019, when a united opposition won Ankara and İstanbul in that year’s local elections, the CHP collected 57.5 percent of the votes in İzmir with help from supporters of the far-right nationalist İYİ Party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
Today, ahead of the 2024 local elections, a recent poll by AREA research forecasted CHP’s vote share in İzmir to be about 42 percent, with the AKP taking 38 percent. The change comes as İYİ and DEM Party (HDP’s successor) fielded their own candidates in İzmir and elsewhere this year.
While most polls suggest CHP will claim victory in İzmir on Sunday, local journalist Sinan Keskin told Turkey recap that collecting less than half the votes in the so-called opposition “castle” would be a "failure" in his view.
CHP’s İzmir mayoral candidate is Cemil Tugay, the current mayor of the city’s Karşıyaka district, where some residents told Turkey recap they were not happy with his performance over the last five years.
‘I'm done with it’
"People say ‘enough’ [to CHP] in İzmir," Ceyda Bölünmez Çankırı, an AKP deputy for İzmir and also the party's mayoral candidate for the province's central Konak district, told Turkey recap.
"İzmir people don't want to be taken for granted. They see how important their city is, yet it is not as developed as its neighbors," she added.
During Çankırı’s tour of the narrow streets of Konak, near the city’s historical clocktower, Mehmet Yılmaz approached the AKP candidate.
"We've always supported CHP as a family," Yılmaz said. "But enough is enough. I'll vote for you this time."
Turkey recap later asked Yılmaz what had caused this shift.
"I love Ceyda Hanım," he replied. "Our parks are filled with dogs and intoxicated people because of the current [CHP] administration. There is also a garbage collection problem. I'm sure she'll solve all of those [problems].”
In Yılmaz's opinion, CHP municipalities didn't put much effort into governing since they knew İzmir residents would stick with the party of Atatürk, the founding father of the Turkish Republic and the CHP.
"I'm done with it this time," Yılmaz said.
The 58-year-old retiree was not the only former CHP voter who declared support for AKP during Turkey recap's visit to İzmir last week.
Roads to victory
While the majority of İzmir residents interviewed by Turkey recap maintained they would support CHP no matter what, many on the opposite side – both new and long-time AKP supporters – echoed taxi driver Cenkli's complaints about roads.
They also mentioned traffic, transportation problems and inadequate services provided to outer and mostly low-income neighborhoods of İzmir as reasons for their support of the AKP.
"There is a good face of İzmir and a bad face," AKP MP Çankırı told Turkey recap during an interview at the city’s historical government office in central Konak.
"Minutes away from here, there are neighborhoods without natural gas,” she continued. “Ambulances can not reach some areas since the roads are too narrow. If you go to those places, I'm sure you'd ask if it's also İzmir."
According to Çankırı, such problems will compel İzmir residents to slap the CHP with a “penalty” Sunday.
"And we'll be here as equals to the task with our deep experience in belediyecilik [municipal work] when it happens," Çankırı added with confidence.
Less confident were some members of Dağ's team. On the record, they told Turkey recap they were sure he’d win, but in more relaxed conversations, they also acknowledged most polls suggested an AKP defeat in the city.
"Consider us as Fenerbahçe playing against Real Madrid," one campaign team member said, requesting anonymity. "Most probably, they'd lose. But it doesn’t mean they shouldn't try."
Casting further doubt on the AKP’s prospects, Özer Sencar, founder and director of MetroPOLL Research, told Turkey recap that İzmir is the province where CHP remains the strongest in the country.
"İzmir is still the most extreme anti-Erdoğan and anti-AKP [province]," Sencar said. "They will do whatever it takes to make sure he doesn't win. In other words, people's motivation is that they are completely against the lifestyle Erdoğan wants to bring.”
“This alone is reason enough for CHP to win for the people of İzmir," he added.
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