The Mansurian Candidate

Issue #245

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In this week’s recap:

• CHP primaries on, unity off

• Peace process updates

• Turkey’s role in the German elections

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Amasya man digs own grave

Also from us this week:

• Hilal Tok on how Syrian repatriation could impact Turkey’s textile sector. Available in English and Turkish.

Left to right: CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu, Özgür Özel and Mansur Yavaş. © CHP

This week, we learned the CHP will hold primary elections on March 23 to choose a presidential candidate. We also learned one of the two top potential candidates won’t be on the ballot.

Meanwhile, Pres. Erdoğan keeps reminding us there are no presidential elections until 2028, when he pledges to build a new ‘new Turkey’ – all of which might sound confusing because it is.

To start from the top, CHP has been calling for early elections for months. İstanbul mayor and likely presidential contender Ekrem İmamoğlu is facing mounting investigations. And the party wants to end ongoing candidacy debates while also fortifying the candidate against what it views as politically-motivated judicial interference.

But the CHP’s other likely presidential candidate, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, might have different plans – and two CHP sources told Turkey recap the coming candidate selection process could backfire, potentially deepening divisions within the party and dispiriting its voter base.

Following a Sunday meeting with CHP chair Özgür Özel and İmamoğlu, Yavaş said he would not participate in the primary elections.

Özel shared the photo above with the message: “We are together. We will always be together. We will win together. Turkey will win.” Two days later, Yavaş shared equally positive messaging.

“We reached a consensus that the two names [İmamoğlu and Yavaş] that have given hope to Turkey should not wear each other out by entering the primary election race,” Özel said during his party’s parliamentary group speech Tuesday.

The same day, the BBC reported Yavaş is considering alternative candidacy options outside of the primary. According to CHP sources who withheld their names, Yavaş is indeed seeking the candidacy, and he has support from party members affiliated with ex-CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

“It makes no sense,” one CHP source said. “How can they hold a primary without both candidates? This might become an extremely damaging process for our party.”

The internal discord comes as external pressure on the CHP continues. Just this week:

• Nine CHP officials in various İstanbul municipal districts were detained on terrorism charges.

• CHP Youth Branch Pres. Cem Aydın faces up to 5 years, 4 months in prison on charges of insulting a public officer.

• And İmamoğlu faces up to 7 years, 4 months in prison – and a political ban – for new charges involving the targeting of a chief public prosecutor.

On that last point: The first hearing of the latest İmamoğlu trial is scheduled for April 11, the same day he is due in court for a separate trial on corruption allegations from his past term as mayor of Beylikdüzü.

Assessing the many dynamics at play, Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-director of the İstanPol Institute and Mercator-IPC Fellow at the İstanbul Policy Center, said it’s early to hold primary elections, but İmamoğlu is facing serious threats. And while candidacy status might not shield İmamoğlu from a political ban, she said:

“At least he will prove that he is the candidate, and the government would like to impede him. So, psychologically the framing of it will be different.”

As for Yavaş, Korkmaz said the Ankara mayor is not under the same pressure as İmamoğlu and is taking the slower “wait and see” approach for the CHP candidacy. She underlined that if the ongoing Kurdish peace process falters, Yavaş might stand to benefit due to his background and ties with nationalist voters.

Overall, the path ahead remains unclear for Turkey’s opposition party, Korkmaz said.

“I think it's not realistic to expect that there will be only one candidate and [the other] will withdraw through their own will,” she told Turkey recap. “It seems like they [İmamoğlu and Yavaş] will choose their own way to be candidates. And CHP, they have to manage all the risks from this multiple candidacy issue.”

DEM Party co-chair Tülay Hatimoğulları speaks Tuesday in parliament. © DEM

Don’t break my halk: Peace process updates