Today’s Turkey news recap comes in two varieties: the newsletter below or this meme involving pies to the face and the geopolitical repercussions. Both really hit the splat.
In this week’s recap:
AKP prepping for Nov. 2027 elections
Yavaş in the spotlight, CHP shifts to fieldwork
Horizon Europe debate further bruises Turkey-EU ties
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Göbeklitepe visitors are not impressed
Also from us this week:
Nebahat Tanrıverdi Yaşar on Turkey’s military and energy projects in Somalia
Emily Rice Johnson dropped This Day In Turkey’s May edition for news tracking tools subscribers
Not a week goes by in Ankara without speculation over the next election date. It’s the local sport. It’s also a great conversation-starter when meeting strangers or when trying to revive a boring dinner date.
The heart beats faster for Turkish politics. Especially after Hürriyet reported Sunday the ruling AKP has already started preparing for elections in November 2027.
Turkey recap readers will know this was the most cited date for the next vote — slated for May 2028 at the latest — and the apparent confirmation by a leading pro-government newspaper serves to firm up the election date further.
Of course, other media outlets have made the case for election dates before and after Nov. 2027, including Turkey recap, so the following is a look at the current narratives and their merits.
What does the facts say: Turkey’s constitution allows two terms per president unless an early election is called or the constitution is changed.
For context, Pres. Erdoğan is currently serving his third term as president (elected in 2014, 2018 and 2023), but he is technically serving his second term under the executive presidential system that began in 2018, according to a Supreme Election Council decision.
Before that, he served as Prime Minister from 2003-2014, which also doesn’t count.
All that to say, Erdoğan is just facing his latest term limit dilemma, and it’s the AKP’s duty to fix it. But they don’t have the parliamentary votes to change the constitution again (at least for now), so calling an early election seems like the clearest path for a third Erdoğan term under the current legal system (subject to change).
What does the reporting say: Early elections can be held any time before May 2028. So, sources cited in the Hürriyet report said they want the next vote to coincide with the AKP’s 25th anniversary in November 2027.
To read between the lines, this would be an emotional appeal to party supporters, who would need to take an extra psychological step to betray the AKP on such an occasion — regardless of the state of the economy. Think of it like a divorce on a wedding anniversary.
Yet, according to the BBC, an early election is not likely unless “absolutely necessary”, as might be the case if Erdoğan wants to secure the third term route. If so, the report states parliament could call for snap elections slightly before May 2028 to greenlight Erdoğan’s candidacy.
In a scenario where Turkey’s economy remains under pressure from the Iran war, other AKP sources told Türkiye Gazetesi that holding elections in the spring of 2028 would allow the party to “gain an extra 6-7 months” for economic mitigation policies.
Meanwhile, our team at Stüdyo recap reported, the AKP is publicly stating elections will be held in May 2028 as they prepare for elections in the second half of 2027. For their part, opposition sources told us they expect the AKP to introduce economic reforms, criminal justice reforms and other pre-election initiatives, though not until 2027.
Analysis: Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science and chair of international relations at Işık University in Istanbul, said the fact that both the incumbent bloc and the opposition are now openly entertaining early election scenarios makes the discussion more credible than before.
Given his mandate till May 2028, she said Erdoğan had little incentive to call for early elections, but the playing field is changing.
“Recent polling trends suggesting some recovery in support — possibly due to the rally around the flag effects of the Iran war — may be feeding a perception within the ruling camp that conditions are becoming more favorable,” Demiralp told Turkey recap.
She noted CHP chair Özgür Özel has also been calling for elections with greater frequency, adding pressure to the mix as the party’s presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu faces multiple trials.
“Early elections become more likely when both sides believe they have a viable path to victory,” Demiralp said. “We may be approaching such a moment.”
“That said,” she continued, “this window could be short-lived. If external factors — such as regional tensions involving Iran — subside and polling trends shift again, the current alignment of incentives could quickly dissolve.”
The Mansurian Candidate: Yavaş in the spotlight, CHP shifts to fieldwork
