The Turkey recap word of 2025 is ‘assault’. As in a-salt lake photo on horseback looks pretty sweet. Tuz Gölü is un-Bolivia-able.
In this week’s recap:
Russian shadow fleet hit in Black Sea
CHP holds 4th congress in 2 years
Peace commission to get Öcalan debrief
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Barzani lights diplomatic crisis at poetry event
Also from us this week:
Wouter Massink and Daniel Thorpe on the high rate of workplace deaths in Turkey
Tomorrow: Emily Rice Johnson covers the latest inflation figures in Economy recap
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With the prospect for Ukraine peace talks unclear, four Russia-connected tankers have come under attack in the last week.
Ukraine claimed two naval drone attacks on tankers near Turkey’s Black Sea coast Friday. Though another attack in the Black Sea Tuesday and one near Senegal Thursday remain unclaimed.
Taken together, it appears failures to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine have placed a growing target on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — the term used for the hundreds of shipping vessels that have helped Moscow evade oil price caps and sanctions throughout its invasion of Ukraine.
What happened: Within one hour on Friday afternoon, Ukrainian naval drones hit two sanctioned oil tankers, named Kairos and Virat, en route to a major Russian oil terminal, a Ukrainian official told Reuters.
Both tankers were empty, had sailed under various flags and their crew members escaped alive. The US, EU, UK, Canada and Switzerland sanctioned Virat, while the EU, UK and Switzerland sanctioned Kairos.
In response, Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov said the attacks “in Turkish territorial waters targeting commercial ships” represent “an attack on the sovereignty of the Republic of Turkey.”
Speaking Monday, Pres. Erdoğan said Ankara “absolutely cannot excuse” attacks that threaten navigation, life and the environment in its maritime boundaries.
“The war between Russia and Ukraine is reaching a point where it openly threatens the safety of navigation in the Black Sea,” he said. “The targeting of commercial vessels in our exclusive economic zone on Friday signals an alarming escalation.”
A third Black Sea attack hit the Russian-flagged tanker MIDVOLGA-2 north of Sinop Tuesday, according to Turkey’s General Directorate of Maritime Affairs.
The vessel was delivering sunflower seed oil from Russia to Georgia and its crew was unharmed, though Ukraine’s FM spox Heorhii Tykhyi said Ukraine was not involved, stating “Russia may have staged the whole thing”.
After the attack, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin threatened to cut Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, adding Moscow would intensify strikes on Ukrainian facilities and vessels.
And the heat goes on, as the Romanian Defense Ministry said it destroyed a maritime drone in the Black Sea Wednesday.
Separately, in an apparent attempt to avoid further incidents, the Beşiktaş shipping group—which owned the tanker hit near Senegal—said it would halt all Russia-related shipping activities.
Analysis: Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst based in Istanbul, where he runs the Bosphorus Observer, said the two tankers hit Friday were among the “darkest of the dark fleet vessels” and “well-chosen”.
“These two vessels exclusively work on the Russian market, on Russian routes and also they’re flagless,” Işık told Turkey recap. “The flag that they’re hosting is totally fake … The entire registration is fake.”
He continued, stating the Russian government has long used such vessels to earn foreign currency to help finance its war in Ukraine. He said Kyiv likely chose to retaliate to change the “narrative” about Kyiv’s capacity amid stalled Washington-led peace negotiations.
“Ukraine needed to show that it has many means under its control and [that] it can prosecute this war … it can seriously disrupt and even maybe stop the seaborne crude traffic coming from Russian ports,” Işık said.
Reflecting on the systemic implications of Russia’s shadow fleet, Işık said illicit maritime trade needs to come under greater scrutiny due to the security threats posed by “a secondary layer of traffic” on international shipping routes.
“These vessels pose great environmental risks and other technical issues,” he added, highlighting shipping choke points like the Turkish straits as well as the English Channel and Danish straits.
“When something happens to these vessels, who pays? How are these issues covered? These vessels are working outside the internationally accepted business practices.”
Party congress all the time: CHP holds 4th congress in 2 years
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