Getting A Sharaa Deal

Issue #244

Two years ago, devastating earthquakes struck Turkey and Syria, claiming more than 53,000 lives and forever altering countless communities.

Today, we pause to remember those who were lost and honor the resilience of survivors as they continue to rebuild.

The road to recovery is long, and we remain committed to sharing important stories from the earthquake zone. As Turkey recap, we welcome contributions to cover reconstruction efforts and the challenges ahead.

In this week’s recap:

• Sharaa visits Ankara

• Öcalan to make ‘historic call’

• İmamoğlu indicted, CHP infighting

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Sedat Peker gets a diploma

Also from us this week:

• The International Crisis Group’s Dareen Khalifa and Berkay Mandıracı make the case for greater US-Turkey cooperation on the future of Syria.

• Wouter Massink and Boran Göksel map out the inadequate distribution of emergency safe zones in İstanbul.

• Gonca Tokyol and Ingrid Woudwijk profile the people seeking accountability for the many deaths caused by negligence in the Feb. 6 earthquakes.

Erdoğan hosted Syrian interim Pres. Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Ankara. © TCCB

When sketching out the future of Ankara-Damascus relations, two variables often shape the road ahead:

1. US troop withdrawal from Syria

2. The outcome of Turkey-PKK peace talks

The first one got a fresh data point this week. The second, we’ll get to below.

NBC News reported Trump’s new national security adviser “is developing plans to withdraw all US troops from Syria.” US officials have yet to confirm the report or provide additional comment, though an SDF spokesperson said the group had not received any plans from the US.

This means anything could happen, including a troop reduction, which would reassert the previous status quo – like whatever happened with the Canada-Mexico tariffs.

In that context, Syrian interim Pres. Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Pres. Erdoğan in Ankara Tuesday. The meeting came after a Reuters report stated the two leaders would discuss a joint defense pact involving Turkish use of airbases and air space in Syria, according to anonymous sources.

In their post-meeting presser, Erdoğan and Sharaa did not provide new information on defense issues. They mainly reiterated a joint commitment to fighting terrorism, which Turkish FM Hakan Fidan has said, in separate events, could be handled by a coalition of neighboring states.

Reflecting on the prospects for Turkey-Syria military cooperation, Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, said it would “certainly” take shape, but we don’t yet know the parameters.

“For example, what was floated in [the Reuters report] about Turkey playing an air defense role or protecting Syria's airspace from attacks?” Lund asked Turkey recap. “In practice, we know the attacks in question are attacks launched by Israel or the United States. So, that would be … very political.”

“I think it would be especially interesting if Turkey tries to pick up the role left by Russia in the Golan Heights, where Russia served as sort of a buffer or an assistance force,” he added.

Power balances are also at play as Sharaa fosters relations with regional figures. Erdoğan is the third head of state to meet Sharaa since regime change in Damascus. First in line was the Qatari emir last Thursday, and then the Saudi crown prince on Sunday.

While the Qatar blockade ended in 2021, regional rivalries persist, meaning the Syrian interim government will likely seek to appease both the Turkey-Qatar and UAE-Saudi blocs in the transition period, according to Lund.

“The more Syria ends up being clearly and explicitly aligned with Turkey and Qatar, which are of course the primary backers of HTS, the more friction I think there could be,” he said.

“I think everyone in the region understands that [Damascus] will be primarily a Turkish and Qatari ally, but maybe [they] can all have a foot in the door,” Lund continued. “There's a willingness to coexist and just make this work somehow. But if tensions increase, that understanding might not last.”

DEM Party co-chair Bakırhan said a “historic call” was coming. © DEM Party

Peace process: Öcalan to make ‘historic call’