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In this week’s recap:
Fidan sparks AKP succession debate
Parliament reopens, focus on PKK talks
CHP detentions in Ankara, Antalya
Turkey ends fight for tower of kebab-el
Also from us this week:
Burak Bilgehan Özpek outlined why the peace process might fail on Recap radio.
News tracking tools subscribers can now read up on Turkey-Cyprus history and access our October events calendar.
Next week: Carnegie nonresident scholar Zaur Shiriyev joins our podcast to check in on Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks as the Organization of Turkic States gathers in Gabala.
Watch the livestream here Oct. 7 at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT.
Let’s start from the top … gun. Pres. Erdoğan met Pres. Trump in the White House last week to discuss a long list of political and commercial trade agreements.
Chief among them was Turkey’s re-entry to the F-35 fighter jet program after it got booted for its 2019 purchase of Russian-made S-400 missile systems.
That move triggered US sanctions on Turkey’s defense sector, which Ankara has since said it would overcome by developing its own weapons (as it has before) like the domestically-produced Kaan fighter jet.
But Turkey’s growing defense sector is not there yet, FM Hakan Fidan said Monday in comments that have reignited presidential succession debates in Ankara and have possibly shed light on the AKP’s internal power struggles.
“At present, the F-35s we are expecting and Kaan’s engines are being held up in the US Congress, with their export licenses frozen,” Fidan said, referring to CAATSA sanctions. “Those licenses must be activated and the engines delivered so that Kaan’s production can move forward.”
The technical details are here. The irony, as journalist Ezgi Bașaran put it, is “the jet that Erdoğan hails as a symbol of sovereignty cannot fly without a piece of American hardware.”
Fidan’s blunt statement drew a firestorm of political commentary in Turkey, as many mulled over the intended effect of this blow to Turkey’s defense sector hype.
“He knows the repercussions of any word or any sentence, so it was not an accidental move,” political scientist Burak Bilgehan Özpek said on our podcast. “He weakened the stories of the government or stories of [Erdoğan’s] family, with just one sentence.”
Haluk Görgün, head of the Turkish Defense Industries Secretariat, responded by stating the Kaan’s development was progressing as planned and foreign-made engines would mainly be used for initial production, expected to begin in 2028.
Then came the leaked discussion between two journalists who apparently did not know they were being recorded by an AP camera outside the White House Monday. The now former NTV correspondent Hüseyin Günay complained Erdoğan did not get real concessions in his Trump meeting.
Then, he said Fidan’s statements signal a three-way fight is underway between the Foreign Minister, Erdoğan’s son Bilal and ex-Finance Min. Berat Albayrak, who reappeared on our newsfeeds Wednesday with this grin.
The hot mic exchange and its distribution may or may not have been planned. Regardless, all the above spotlights an S-400-shaped chokepoint in Turkey’s defense sector ambitions, and a potentially real fight for who will take the mantle after Erdoğan.
“There’s a serious internal conflict going on, and everyone knows everything,” a Yeni Yol Party official told Turkey recap.
When asked about the timing of Fidan’s comment, the source said: “Fidan may have received word of operations against his own men in the coming days [so he took action].”
There’s plenty of guess work though Bilal Erdoğan and Fidan have long been viewed to be top contenders to lead the post-Reis AKP. What about the other damat, Selçuk Bayraktar, you ask?
Bayraktar has not yet converted his drone manufacturing success into political momentum, the Yeni Yol Party official said:
“He has made some of his weaknesses very clear. There’s a very serious argument within the family, and it’s still not over.”
“I think the most important factor is that even though he’s the son-in-law, he’s a stranger [for the base]. Moreover, he’s not a popular choice within the AKP community.”
Peacemeal: Parliament reopens, focus on PKK talks
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