Putin makes world leaders wait for meetings. Trump makes them wait for his motorcade. Who managed it better, Macron or Erdoğan?
In this week’s recap:
Erdoğan goes to Washington
Trump, PKK talks test AKP-MHP bloc?
CHP votes, mayors take fresh blows
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Turkish politics trucks up New York
Also from us this week:
Wouter Massink on the construction frenzy along the Canal Istanbul route
Arife Köse details how the AKP is designing the opposition on Recap radio
Tomorrow: Emily Rice Johnson on US-Turkey trade deals in Economy recap
Next week: Analyst Burak Bilgehan Özpek joins our podcast Wednesday to take stock of the PKK peace talks and new parliamentary session.
Watch the livestream here Oct. 1 at 0900 EDT / 1300 UTC / 1600 TRT.
After four years at arm’s length, Erdoğan is ready to embrace Washington and whatever Trump is about to throw his way. We know the pair is expected to meet today at 11:15 EDT, but we don’t know if Erdoğan will get special screenings or the JD Vance treatment.
The meeting is reportedly closed to the press. Agenda items include Israel, Syria and many trade deals that we’ll cover in tomorrow’s Economy recap. So, what can we expect?
Pre-summit coverage underlined the increasingly transactional nature of US-Turkey ties as both leaders look to secure wins for their domestic agendas. Though think tank commentary was more varied.
For example, in this Brookings piece, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş argues US-Turkey relations need a “sustainable mechanism” to end the “long saga of short-term bargains and long-term drift.” While this pro-government SETA piece by Murat Aslan states:
“Despite the anti-Turkish Jewish, Greek, and Armenian lobbies in the Senate, it is expected that Trump will take a pro-Türkiye stance on issues within presidential authority.”
Aslan concludes Ankara would reciprocate “a constructive step” from Washington. That could take the form of not just jet deals, but also US-Turkey coordination in Syria, which itself may be in transition after a staff rotation in the US consulate last week.
Speaking at an event Wednesday, US special envoy Thomas Barrack suggested US-Turkey ties would soon see a “dramatic change” due to Trump’s “genius” in giving Erdoğan “legitimacy.”
Analysis: Howard Eissenstat, a Laurentian assoc. prof. of History at New York’s St. Lawrence University, said Erdoğan will most likely seek to persuade Trump to further align with Ankara’s Syria policy.
“The SDF is one issue, but really, I think the larger issue at this point for Turkey is how free of hand do [they] get in Syria?” Eissenstat told Turkey recap.
“One of the things that [Erdoğan] is going to want is, yes, for the US to wean itself from the SDF, but also to mediate conflict with Israel.”
Asked about the overall state of US-Turkey ties after a tumultuous decade of high-profile jailings, street brawls, court cases and sanctions, Eissenstat said Erdoğan is a “much more strategic thinker than Trump” and likely views current dynamics through their implications in 5-10 years.
“Fundamentally, Turkey sees a tremendous advantage in keeping the US onside for the time being. It is envisioning American decline, but American decline hasn’t progressed far enough for it to abandon that relationship or to leave it to the sidelines,” Eissenstat said.
“Turkey, in the long term, is expecting to have a viable, competitive defense industry that makes it significantly less reliant on foreign technology, but we’re not there yet.”
Un-break my hearth: Trump, PKK talks test AKP-MHP bloc?
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